Will PLQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Will PLQ win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing October 5, 2027. The market is pricing PLQ at just 33% despite over 500 days until the October 2027 close, suggesting strong consensus favoring other parties—likely the incumbent CAQ or surging QS.
Analysis
The market is pricing PLQ at just 33% despite over 500 days until the October 2027 close, suggesting strong consensus favoring other parties—likely the incumbent CAQ or surging QS. The 174.9% implied yield on the Yes side is notably asymmetric compared to the 26.5% No yield, indicating the market views PLQ as a significant underdog with limited upside relative to downside risk. Liquidity is thin at $1,462 open interest with only $226 in 24-hour volume, so this contract may struggle to attract meaningful capital flows before expiration.
Resolution rules
If the PLQ wins the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXQUEBECASSEMBLY-26OCT05-PLQ yes 100