What is the current probability for "2026 Game of the Year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Game of the Year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 678.4% and 5.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Game of the Year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Game of the Year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that 2026 Game of the Year?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market on Crimson Desert winning 2026 Game of the Year shows extreme skew with a 1112.1% implied yield for Yes positions against just 3.1% for No, reflecting the 5¢ price and substantial cliff risk (index of 19).

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10¢

Bid/Ask 8/10¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $3,146.62·OI $62,689.96·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining

KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-CRI

7-day price22 snapshots · 60 regime

9¢8¢ current

Apr 93¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market on Crimson Desert winning 2026 Game of the Year shows extreme skew with a 1112.1% implied yield for Yes positions against just 3.1% for No, reflecting the 5¢ price and substantial cliff risk (index of 19). The $56k open interest against only $2.7k daily volume suggests illiquidity relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns for larger traders. With 624 days until expiry and no price movement over the past week, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet rather than an actively traded market.

Resolution rules

If Crimson Desert has won Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 678.4%

IY (No) 5.1%

Adj IY 254%

CRI 12

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.25

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	678.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	254%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:07:14 PM

Observability lowEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-CRI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →