What is the current probability for "2026 Game of the Year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 47¢ (47% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Game of the Year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 69.2% and 50.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Game of the Year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Game of the Year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that 2026 Game of the Year?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market prices GTA VI's 2026 Game of the Year chances at 49%, reflecting genuine uncertainty despite the franchise's historical dominance.

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47¢

Bid/Ask 46/47¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $881.84·OI $43,427.72·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining

KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-GTA

7-day price166 snapshots · 46 regime

50¢46¢ current

Apr 844¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market prices GTA VI's 2026 Game of the Year chances at 49%, reflecting genuine uncertainty despite the franchise's historical dominance. The 63.4% implied yield on the Yes side appears attractive but comes with notable cliff risk—resolution depends entirely on a single December 2026 event with no intermediate price discovery opportunities, making the high yield partially illusory. With only $986 in 24-hour volume against $41k open interest, liquidity is thin relative to position size, suggesting potential difficulty exiting large positions before the 624-day expiry.

Resolution rules

If Grand Theft Auto VI has won Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 69.2%

IY (No) 50.3%

Adj IY 35%

CRI 1

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	69.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	50.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	35%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:07:54 PM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-GTA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →