Before Jan 1, 2030 · Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 20
Before Jan 1, 2030 is priced at 51¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 47¢ bid, 54¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 20.
Price history
51¢ current
+49¢Contract brief
If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2030
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2030 46¢
Range
2¢-46¢
Family volume
$5
Identifier
KXCARRIEDINTEREST-26MAY-30JAN01
Jun 25, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
47¢
Ask
54¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 20
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Family volume
$5
Orderbook snapshot
47 / 54¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Identifier
KXCARRIEDINTEREST-26MAY-30JAN01
Event family
Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 20.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2030 46¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.