Before Jan 1, 2028 · Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 20
Before Jan 1, 2028 is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 20.
Price history
17¢ current
+14¢Contract brief
If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2028
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2030 47¢
Range
2¢-47¢
Family volume
$5
Identifier
KXCARRIEDINTEREST-26MAY-28JAN01
Jun 26, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
17¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$5
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 20
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$5
Orderbook snapshot
17 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KXCARRIEDINTEREST-26MAY-28JAN01
Event family
Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 20.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2030 47¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.