Magnus Carlsen · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10
Magnus Carlsen is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 95¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 14 inside KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10.
Price history
98¢ current
+97¢Contract brief
If Magnus Carlsen is rated top 10 on the July 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Magnus Carlsen
Rank
#2 of 14
Leader
Anish Giri 98¢
Range
1¢-98¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-MCAR
Jun 25, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
95¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$60
Family rank
#2 of 14
14 outcomes · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10
Closes
Aug 7, 2026
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
95 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Magnus Carlsen is rated top 10 on the July 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 7, 2026
Identifier
KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-MCAR
Event family
KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
14
Highest price
Anish Giri 98¢
Current share
0%
Anish Giri
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-AGIR
Wesley So
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-WSO
Magnus Carlsen
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-MCAR
Fabiano Caruana
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-FCAR
Hikaru Nakamura
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-HNAK
Javokhir Sindarov
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-JSIN
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-NABD
Vincent Keymer
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-VKEY
Wei Yi
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-WEYI
Arjun Erigaisi
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-AERI
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-JDUD
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-RPRA
Hans Moke Niemann
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-HMOK
Alireza Firouzja
kalshi · KXCHESSFIDERATINGTOP-26JULT10-AFIR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 98% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.