Will Vincent Keymer be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in June 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 53% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
53%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8
19 contracts
Closes
Sep 7, 2026
36 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Arjun Erigaisi be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 2
Will Aleksandra Goryachkina be rated top 5 on the FIDE Top Women Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 3
Will Alireza Firouzja be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 4
Will Anish Giri be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 5
Will Fabiano Caruana be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 6
Will Hans Moke Niemann be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 7
Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 8
Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 9
Will Javokhir Sindarov be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 10
Will Jorden Van Foreest be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 11
Will Liren Ding be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 12
Will Leinier Domínguez Pérez be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 13
Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 14
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 15
Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 16
Will Viswanathan Anand be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 17
Will Vincent Keymer be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 18
Will Wei Yi be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Cluster 19
Will Wesley So be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in August 2026
Analysis
This probability indicates an 82% chance that Vincent Keymer will appear in the top 10 of FIDE's standard rating list for June 2026. Keymer's current trajectory and recent performance results drive the high confidence level, with his rating position relatively stable near the threshold. The main factors affecting this probability are tournament results between now and the rating list's publication in June, which could either reinforce his top-10 status or push him lower if he underperforms or faces stiff competition from rising players. The June 2026 FIDE rating list publication will definitively resolve this contract, making recent tournament outcomes and rating trends the primary indicators of movement.
- ›Keymer's current FIDE rating and ranking relative to the 10th-place threshold
- ›Tournament results and rating changes for Keymer between May and June 2026
- ›Performance of other players competing for top-10 positions who could displace him
- ›Rating volatility of players near the top 10 who might move above or below Keymer
- ›The timing and results of major tournaments scheduled before the June rating list publication
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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