HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report above 15000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027
Above 15,000 is priced at 87¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 87¢ bid, 93¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above.
Price history
87¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report is above 15,000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 15,000
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Above 15,000 87¢
Range
47¢-87¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXNYCAFFORDABLE-27JUN30-A15000
Aug 21, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
87¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$7
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above
Closes
Sep 17, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
87 / 93¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report is above 15,000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 17, 2027
Identifier
KXNYCAFFORDABLE-27JUN30-A15000
Event family
Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Above 15,000 87¢
Current share
—
Above 15,000
kalshi · KXNYCAFFORDABLE-27JUN30-A15000
Above 20,000
kalshi · KXNYCAFFORDABLE-27JUN30-A20000
Above 25,000
kalshi · KXNYCAFFORDABLE-27JUN30-A25000
Above 30,000
kalshi · KXNYCAFFORDABLE-27JUN30-A30000
Above 35,000
kalshi · KXNYCAFFORDABLE-27JUN30-A35000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.