Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 30000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027
Leader sits at 87% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 77%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 15,000
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
77¢
Above 20,000
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 17, 2027
373 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above
Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 15000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027?: Above 15,000
KXNYCAFFORDABLE-27JUN30-A15000
Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 35000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027?: Above 35,000
KXNYCAFFORDABLE-27JUN30-A35000
Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 30000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027?: Above 30,000
KXNYCAFFORDABLE-27JUN30-A30000
Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 25000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027?: Above 25,000
KXNYCAFFORDABLE-27JUN30-A25000
Will HPD’s “Total affordable housing starts (units)” indicator in the annual Mayor’s Management Report be above 20000 for New York City fiscal year 2027, from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027?: Above 20,000
KXNYCAFFORDABLE-27JUN30-A20000
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 59% probability that New York City's Department of Housing Preservation and Development (HPD) will report more than 30,000 affordable housing unit starts during fiscal year 2027 (July 2026–June 2027) in the annual Mayor's Management Report. The distribution of contract prices—ranging from 92% probability above 15,000 units down to 46% above 35,000 units—suggests traders expect outcomes concentrated in the 15,000–25,000 range. HPD's actual production capacity, funding availability from city and state budgets, and permitting timelines are the primary factors shaping expectations. The outcome will be definitively resolved when HPD publishes its official Mayor's Management Report in summer 2027, which reports the prior fiscal year's housing starts. Historical performance data and current project pipelines suggest most traders view 30,000 starts as an ambitious but achievable target.
- ›HPD's historical annual affordable housing starts (2020–2025) provide a baseline for assessing whether 30,000 units represents continuation, acceleration, or a departure from recent trends
- ›Current city and state capital budgets committed to HPD housing development programs as of mid-2026 determine available funding to initiate new projects during the fiscal year
- ›The volume of projects that received final permits and were ready to break ground by July 2026 directly constrains starts possible during the July 2026–June 2027 period
- ›NYC's construction labor market conditions and material costs in late 2026 affect whether developers can actually mobilize workforce and equipment to begin projects
- ›The Mayor's Management Report definition of 'housing starts' (likely tied to DHCR filings or formal construction commencement) determines the exact counting methodology used to calculate the final reported number
What moved the line
- Sep 4Above 20,000↑37pp40→77¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Above 20,000↓36pp76→40¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Above 15,000↑32pp55→87¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Above 25,000↑30pp36→66¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Above 30,000↓29pp56→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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