Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice is priced at 39¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 38¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
39¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$58K
Identifier
0xae515ea2...6d58
Sep 12, 2026, 11:16 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
38¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$58K
Orderbook snapshot
38 / 39¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xae515ea2…6d58
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$58K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice 39¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.