Botafogo to win Botafogo vs Santos
Botafogo is priced at 47¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 45¢ bid, 48¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Botafogo vs Santos Winner.
Price history
47¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Botafogo wins the Botafogo vs Santos professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 16, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Botafogo
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Botafogo 45¢
Range
25¢-45¢
Family volume
$310
Identifier
KXBRASILEIROGAME-26JUL16BOTSAN-BOT
Jul 12, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
45¢
Ask
48¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$165
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Botafogo vs Santos Winner
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Family volume
$310
Orderbook snapshot
45 / 48¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Botafogo wins the Botafogo vs Santos professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 16, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Identifier
KXBRASILEIROGAME-26JUL16BOTSAN-BOT
Event family
Botafogo vs Santos Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$310
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Botafogo 45¢
Current share
53%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 47% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.