Vancouver to win Chicago Fire vs Vancouver
Vancouver is priced at 41¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 40¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Winner.
Price history
41¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If Vancouver wins the Chicago Fire vs Vancouver professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 16, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Vancouver
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Vancouver 40¢
Range
23¢-40¢
Family volume
$375
Identifier
KXMLSGAME-26JUL16CHIVAN-VAN
Jul 12, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 7h ago
Implied probability
Bid
40¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$288
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Winner
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Family volume
$375
Orderbook snapshot
40 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Vancouver wins the Chicago Fire vs Vancouver professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 16, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
KXMLSGAME-26JUL16CHIVAN-VAN
Event family
Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$375
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Vancouver 40¢
Current share
77%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.