SimpleFunctions

UNiTY (-1.5) vs mellren (+1.5) for Map Handicap

Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs mellren (+1.5) is priced at 50¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 94¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

50¢ current

50¢
Oct 17, 2026Oct 17, 2026

Contract brief

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between UNiTY esports and mellren in the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "UNiTY esports" if UNiTY esports wins 2 or more maps than mellren in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "mellren". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 18, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Outcome

Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs mellren (+1.5)

Rank

Standalone

Leader

—

Range

—

Family volume

$0

Identifier

0x70d296df...b5c1

Oct 17, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

50¢
Latest venue quote
Oct 17, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

3¢

Ask

97¢

Spread

94¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Oct 18, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 97¢

Polymarket
94¢ spread
BidSize
100¢29
3¢22
2¢50
AskSize
97¢22
98¢50
99¢29

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between UNiTY esports and mellren in the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "UNiTY esports" if UNiTY esports wins 2 or more maps than mellren in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "mellren". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 18, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Oct 18, 2026

Identifier

0x70d296df…b5c1

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

This market.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs mellren (+1.5) 50¢

Current share

—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Opinionessay

Prediction market liquidity: why depth matters more than volume for serious traders

Why orderbook depth matters more than volume for prediction market traders. Real Kalshi examples, liquidity scoring framework, and how to avoid slippage.

Bloginsights

When the Orderbook Is Empty, You Have Information

An empty orderbook is not missing data. It is one of two specific stories — and the second story is the most reliable maker setup I have found on Polymarket.

Conceptmethodology

Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes

When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.

Conceptmethodology

The Longshot Bias in Modern Prediction Markets — 80 Years of Evidence in One Number

Horse racing has an 80-year longshot bias. Polymarket and Kalshi have one too — but the direction is opposite. What the calibration data on cheap and expensive contracts actually says.

Conceptmethodology

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.