Fear & Greed Index on Aug 14, 2026
Extreme Fear is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 5 inside Fear & Greed Index on Aug 14, 2026.
Price history
10¢ current
−38¢Contract brief
If the first value update after 4:00 PM ET on Aug 14, 2026 is Extreme Fear, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Extreme Fear
Rank
#5 of 5
Leader
Greed 41¢
Range
4¢-41¢
Family volume
$239
Identifier
KXFEAR-26AUG14-XFEAR
Aug 9, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$94
Family rank
#5 of 5
5 outcomes · Fear & Greed Index on Aug 14, 2026
Closes
Aug 21, 2026
Family volume
$239
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the first value update after 4:00 PM ET on Aug 14, 2026 is Extreme Fear, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 21, 2026
Identifier
KXFEAR-26AUG14-XFEAR
Event family
Fear & Greed Index on Aug 14, 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$239
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Greed 41¢
Current share
39%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.