above 1500 · Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score?: above 1
above 1500 is priced at 59¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 58¢ bid, 59¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 7 inside Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score?: above 1.
Price history
59¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater scores above 1500 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) before Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
above 1500
Rank
#3 of 7
Leader
above 1490 88¢
Range
9¢-88¢
Family volume
$307
Identifier
KXARENASCORE-GEMI35P-1500
Jun 28, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
58¢
Ask
59¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$58
Family rank
#3 of 7
7 outcomes · Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score?: above 1
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$307
Orderbook snapshot
58 / 59¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater scores above 1500 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) before Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXARENASCORE-GEMI35P-1500
Event family
Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score?: above 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$307
Outcomes
7
Highest price
above 1490 88¢
Current share
19%
above 1490
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GEMI35P-1490
above 1495
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GEMI35P-1495
above 1500
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GEMI35P-1500
above 1505
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GEMI35P-1505
above 1510
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GEMI35P-1510
above 1515
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GEMI35P-1515
above 1520
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GEMI35P-1520
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 59% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.