above 1510 · GPT 5.6 debut arena score?: above 1
above 1510 is priced at 49¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 35¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 7 inside GPT 5.6 debut arena score?: above 1.
Price history
49¢ current
+47¢Contract brief
If A model called GPT-5.6 or greater scores above 1510 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) before Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
above 1510
Rank
#5 of 7
Leader
above 1505 30¢
Range
4¢-30¢
Family volume
$9
Identifier
KXARENASCORE-GPT56-1510
Jun 25, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
47¢
Spread
35¢
24h volume
$0
Family rank
#5 of 7
7 outcomes · GPT 5.6 debut arena score?: above 1
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$9
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 47¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If A model called GPT-5.6 or greater scores above 1510 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) before Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXARENASCORE-GPT56-1510
Event family
GPT 5.6 debut arena score?: above 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9
Outcomes
7
Highest price
above 1505 30¢
Current share
0%
above 1505
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GPT56-1505
above 1500
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GPT56-1500
above 1490
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GPT56-1490
above 1515
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GPT56-1515
above 1510
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GPT56-1510
above 1495
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GPT56-1495
above 1520
kalshi · KXARENASCORE-GPT56-1520
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Computing Liquidity Availability Score from the Orderbook
Step-by-step guide to computing the Liquidity Availability Score in TypeScript and Python, with edge cases for thin orderbooks, missing data, and the warm-cron coverage limitation.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 49% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.