Democratic party to win Indiana Secretary of State
Democratic party is priced at 33¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 33¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Indiana Secretary of State winner.
Price history
33¢ current
−7¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Democratic party party is elected the Secretary of State of Indiana in the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democratic party
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Republican party 64¢
Range
33¢-64¢
Family volume
$10
Identifier
KXSECSTATEIN-26-DEM
Jun 28, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
33¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$10
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Indiana Secretary of State winner
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$10
Orderbook snapshot
33 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Democratic party party is elected the Secretary of State of Indiana in the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXSECSTATEIN-26-DEM
Event family
Indiana Secretary of State winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Republican party 64¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.