What is the current probability for "ISCO Championship: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 20?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 33¢ (33% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on August 9, 2026. 28 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "ISCO Championship: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 20?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2919.5% and 589.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "ISCO Championship: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 20?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — computed indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Joel Dahmen finish top 20 for ISCO Championship

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Joel Dahmen is priced at 33¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 29¢ bid, 34¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside ISCO Championship.

Open on Kalshi View JSON Enter terminal

Price history

33¢ current

+13¢

0¢25¢

Jul 7, 2026Jul 12, 2026

Contract brief

If Joel Dahmen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Joel Dahmen

Rank

#12 of 16

Leader

Lucas Glover 92¢

Range

10¢-92¢

Family volume

$17K

Identifier

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-JDAH

Jul 12, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 7h ago

Implied probability

33¢

Latest venue quote

Jul 12, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 7h ago

Bid

29¢

Ask

34¢

Spread

5¢

24h volume

$102

Family rank

#12 of 16

16 outcomes · ISCO Championship

Closes

Aug 9, 2026

Family volume

$17K

Orderbook snapshot

29 / 34¢

Kalshi

5¢ spread

BidSize

29¢218

28¢1.0K

26¢121

25¢4.7K

17¢1

AskSize

34¢200

35¢2.5K

36¢2.6K

37¢2.5K

38¢2.5K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Joel Dahmen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 9, 2026

Identifier

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-JDAH

SF Signal

SF Index

2919.54

Regime

neutral

Event family

ISCO Championship.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$17K

Outcomes

Highest price

Lucas Glover 92¢

Current share

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Lucas Glover

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-LGLO

92¢

$1K$1K—

Stephan Jaeger

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-SJAE

92¢

$250$2600.1

Steven Fisk

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-SFIS

90¢

$871$881—

Chan Kim

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-CKIM

90¢

$375$375—

Aaron Wise

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-AWIS

89¢

$631$654—

Tom Hoge

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-THOG

86¢

$2K$1K0.0

Zac Blair

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-ZBLA

84¢

$380$386—

Rafael Campos

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-RCAM

58¢

$310$205—

Benjamin James

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-BJAM

54¢

$383$143—

Justin Lower

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-JLOW

36¢

$657$657—

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-CBEZ

32¢

$743$7520.8

Joel Dahmen

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-JDAH

29¢

$102$87—

Preston Stout

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-PSTO

26¢

$536$5390.0

Wenyi Ding

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-WDIN

17¢

$439$439—

Kevin Streelman

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-KSTR

13¢

$298$298—

Max Homa

kalshi · KXPGATOP20-ISC26-MHOM

10¢

$8K$8K0.2

Browse this series

PGA Championship Top-N Finish Markets

Per-series collection — every live contract in the KXPGATOP series on Kalshi, sorted by 24h volume.

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

2919.5%

IY (No)

589.3%

Adj IY

2920%

CRI

12525%

4.25

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)

2919.5%

Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side

IY (No)

589.3%

Annualized return, NO side

Adj IY

2920%

Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction

CRI

Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

12525%

Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history

4.25

Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead

IAR

0.8/h

Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Overround

22.3%

Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.

Event Probability API

Read 33% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.

World State API

Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.

Hedging Workflows

Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.