Completed Match: Filippo Mazzola vs Mario Arce Fernandez for ITF Men Xativa
ITF Men Xativa: Completed Match: Filippo Mazzola vs Mario Arce Fernandez is priced at 50¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 98¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
50¢ current
Contract brief
This market refers to the tennis match between Filippo Mazzola and Mario Arce Fernandez in the ITF Men Xativa, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 11:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if all games and sets required to determine a match winner under governing body or event organizer rules are played to completion through normal play. Otherwise, if the match is not completed for any reason, it will resolve to "No." If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve "No." If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Outcome
ITF Men Xativa: Completed Match: Filippo Mazzola vs Mario Arce Fernandez
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
0x9e7f297b...376c
Jul 28, 2026, 10:57 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
98¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 5, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market refers to the tennis match between Filippo Mazzola and Mario Arce Fernandez in the ITF Men Xativa, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 11:45AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if all games and sets required to determine a match winner under governing body or event organizer rules are played to completion through normal play. Otherwise, if the match is not completed for any reason, it will resolve to "No." If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve "No." If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 5, 2026
Identifier
0x9e7f297b…376c
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
ITF Men Xativa: Completed Match: Filippo Mazzola vs Mario Arce Fernandez 50¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Yield Curve (Prediction Markets)
A prediction-market yield curve plots implied yield against τ-days across all sibling contracts in an event family. Borrowed from bond desks, enabled by cycle clustering.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 50% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.