Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026
Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026 is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
2¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
0xa068dd68...cd1d
Aug 26, 2026, 8:32 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$156
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0xa068dd68…cd1d
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026 2¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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