At least 4% · Inflation surge in 2026?: At least
At least 4% is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 98¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Inflation surge in 2026?: At least.
Price history
98¢ current
+48¢Contract brief
If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 4%
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
At least 4% 98¢
Range
11¢-98¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4
May 25, 2026, 12:07 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
98¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Inflation surge in 2026?: At least
Closes
Feb 14, 2027
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
98 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 14, 2027
Identifier
KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4
Event family
Inflation surge in 2026?: At least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
At least 4% 98¢
Current share
26%
At least 4%
kalshi · KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4
At least 4.5%
kalshi · KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P4.5
At least 5%
kalshi · KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P5
At least 5.5%
kalshi · KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P5.5
At least 6.0%
kalshi · KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P6.0
At least 6.5%
kalshi · KXLCPIMAXYOY-27-P6.5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
data_release
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 98% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.