Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering
Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering is priced at 1¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
1¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
0x05bc3bcb...c902
Jul 23, 2026, 10:43 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of OpenAI. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or OpenAI completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of OpenAI's final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from OpenAI. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
0x05bc3bcb…c902
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering 1¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.