Michelle Zhang leads at the end of Round 3: Michelle Zhang · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26
Michelle Zhang leads at the end of Round 3: Michelle Zhang is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 75¢ ask, 75¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26.
Price history
5¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If Michelle Zhang is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 FM Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Michelle Zhang leads at the end of Round 3: Michelle Zhang
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Michelle Zhang leads at the end of Round 3: Michelle Zhang 5¢
Range
5¢-5¢
Family volume
$36
Identifier
KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-MICZHA
Aug 26, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
75¢
Spread
75¢
24h volume
$7
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26
Closes
Sep 13, 2026
Family volume
$36
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 75¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Michelle Zhang is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 FM Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 13, 2026
Identifier
KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-MICZHA
Event family
KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$36
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Michelle Zhang leads at the end of Round 3: Michelle Zhang 5¢
Current share
19%
Michelle Zhang leads at the end of Round 3: Michelle Zhang
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-MICZHA
Carolina Lopez-Chacarra Coto leads at the end of Round 3: Carolina Lopez-Chacarra Coto
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-CARLOP
Nastasia Nadaud leads at the end of Round 3: Nastasia Nadaud
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-NASNAD
Pajaree Anannarukarn leads at the end of Round 3: Pajaree Anannarukarn
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-PAJANA
Rio Takeda leads at the end of Round 3: Rio Takeda
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-RIOTAK
Robyn Choi leads at the end of Round 3: Robyn Choi
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-ROBCHO
Rose Zhang leads at the end of Round 3: Rose Zhang
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-ROSZHA
Ryann O'Toole leads at the end of Round 3: Ryann O'Toole
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-RYAOTO
Yuka Saso leads at the end of Round 3: Yuka Saso
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-YUKSAS
Yuri Yoshida leads at the end of Round 3: Yuri Yoshida
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-YURYOS
Aditi Ashok leads at the end of Round 3: Aditi Ashok
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-ADIASH
Akie Iwai leads at the end of Round 3: Akie Iwai
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-AKIIWA
Alexa Pano leads at the end of Round 3: Alexa Pano
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-ALEPAN
A Lim Kim leads at the end of Round 3: A Lim Kim
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-ALIKIM
Allisen Corpuz leads at the end of Round 3: Allisen Corpuz
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-ALLCOR
Amanda Doherty leads at the end of Round 3: Amanda Doherty
kalshi · KXLPGAR3LEAD-FMC26-AMADOH
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.