Toronto to win Montreal vs Toronto
Toronto is priced at 27¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 24¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside Montreal vs Toronto Winner.
Price history
27¢ current
+23¢Contract brief
If Toronto wins the Montreal vs Toronto professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 16, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Toronto
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
Montreal 49¢
Range
21¢-49¢
Family volume
$101
Identifier
KXMLSGAME-26JUL16MTLTOR-TOR
Jul 12, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
24¢
Ask
27¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$17
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · Montreal vs Toronto Winner
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Family volume
$101
Orderbook snapshot
24 / 27¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Toronto wins the Montreal vs Toronto professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 16, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Identifier
KXMLSGAME-26JUL16MTLTOR-TOR
Event family
Montreal vs Toronto Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$101
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Montreal 49¢
Current share
17%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Read 27% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.