No one announced as next James Bond
No one announced as next James Bond is priced at 98¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 98¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
98¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
No one announced as next James Bond
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$357K
Identifier
0x6a01c168...3f89
Jun 26, 2026, 7:50 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
98¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$357K
Orderbook snapshot
98 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x6a01c168…3f89
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$357K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
No one announced as next James Bond 98¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
cultural
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 98% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.