SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Core CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets — pricing the ladder, 56 thresholds.

56 live Kalshi contracts (73 audited). Median implied probability sits at 8%. 4 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26JUN-T2.9 -17c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY",
    "label": "Core CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 56,
    "volume24hSum": 626,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 23 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 00:15 UTC
Vol Flow$626+66%
min $48max $1.6K
Breadth0%+100.0pp
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 00:15 UTC
Jun 17past 7d · UTCJun 23 · 22:23

Live contracts

56

Median IY

8¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$626

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Bucket count

56

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 56 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 0.7pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 2.992.22.52.93.13.43.7cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in Core CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 56

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 2.8%31¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$276
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.0%15¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$200
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 2.7%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$150
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.7%9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.0%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.1%12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.2%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.3%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.4%9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.5%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.6%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.7%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.3%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.4%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.5%8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.6%8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.7%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.8%9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.9%11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 3.0%18¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
56 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Core CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets

From market_changes
4h agoKalshi
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 2.9%
2¢19→2 (-17)
open →
4h agoKalshi
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.0%
1¢15→1 (-14)
open →
4h agoKalshi
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.0%
15¢1→15 (+14)
open →
4h agoKalshi
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.1%
9¢3→9 (+6)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 Jun 2026 23:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →