SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Core CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets — pricing the ladder, 39 thresholds.

39 live Kalshi contracts (73 audited). Median implied probability sits at 7%. 4 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26SEP-T2.3 +8c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY",
    "label": "Core CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 39,
    "volume24hSum": 0,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 20 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$0-100%
min $0max $1.0K
Breadth0%+33.3pp
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 16:45 UTC
Aug 13past 7d · UTCAug 20 · 16:23

Live contracts

39

Median IY

7¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$0

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Bucket count

39

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 39 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 1.2pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 2.922.22.52.83.23.43.7cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in Core CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 39

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.2%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.3%29¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 202%Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.4%27¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 312%Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.5%8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol 997%Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.6%13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.7%8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.8%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.0%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.1%12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.2%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.3%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.4%9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.5%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.6%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.7%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 3.7%11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 2.2%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 2.3%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 2.4%8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 2.5%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
39 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Core CPI Year-over-Year Forecast Markets

From market_changes
8h agoKalshi
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 2.3%
15¢7→15 (+8)
open →
7h agoKalshi
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 2.3%
7¢15→7 (-8)
open →
8h agoKalshi
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 2.4%
1¢8→1 (-7)
open →
7h agoKalshi
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 2.4%
8¢1→8 (+7)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 20 Aug 2026 16:08:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →