SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

U.S. Unemployment Rate Exact Forecast Markets — pricing the ladder, 25 thresholds.

25 live Kalshi contracts (58 audited). Median implied probability sits at 6%. 2 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXECONSTATU3-26OCT-T4.3 -6c). 3 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXECONSTATU.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXECONSTATU
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXECONSTATU
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXECONSTATU",
    "label": "U.S. Unemployment Rate Exact Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 25,
    "volume24hSum": 200,
    "hasThesisCount": 3
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 18 Sep 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 16:15 UTC
Vol Flow$200
min $0max $200
Breadth100%0.0pp
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 16:15 UTC
Sep 11past 7d · UTCSep 18 · 14:23

Live contracts

25

Median IY

6¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$200

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

3

Bucket count

25

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 25 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 2.8pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 4.283.344.24.54.75cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in U.S. Unemployment Rate Exact Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 25

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.1%9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$200
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.6%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.9%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.0%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.2%77¢
IY 142%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.3%11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.4%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.5%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.6%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.7%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.8%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.9%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 5.0%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 3.8%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 3.9%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge -64¢RVol —Resid —$0thesis ◆
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.0%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge -61¢RVol —Resid —$0thesis ◆
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.1%16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge -56¢RVol —Resid —$0thesis ◆
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.2%21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.3%8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.5%8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
25 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in U.S. Unemployment Rate Exact Forecast Markets

From market_changes
3h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.3%
8¢14→8 (-6)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.4%
2¢8→2 (-6)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 18 Sep 2026 16:08:40 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXECONSTATU →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →