SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

U.S. Unemployment Rate Exact Forecast Markets — pricing the ladder, 51 thresholds.

51 live Kalshi contracts (58 audited). Median implied probability sits at 7%. 34 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXECONSTATU3-26JUN-T4.3 -19c). 2 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXECONSTATU.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXECONSTATU
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXECONSTATU
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXECONSTATU",
    "label": "U.S. Unemployment Rate Exact Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 51,
    "volume24hSum": 0,
    "hasThesisCount": 2
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 07 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100-64.0
Vol Flow$0-100%
min $0max $6.5K
Breadth-100%-100.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 19:30 UTC
May 31past 7d · UTCJun 7 · 18:23

Live contracts

51

Median IY

7¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$0

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

2

Bucket count

50

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 51 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 1.0pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 4.493.34.24.44.64.95.5cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in U.S. Unemployment Rate Exact Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 51

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 5.5%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.3%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.6%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.4%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.5%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.6%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.7%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.9%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.4%14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.5%15¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.6%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.7%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.8%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.9%12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 4.3%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 4.6%12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 4.7%4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 4.8%3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 4.9%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 5.0%11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
51 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in U.S. Unemployment Rate Exact Forecast Markets

From market_changes
17h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Jun 2026?: Exactly 4.3%
30¢49→30 (-19)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Jun 2026?: Exactly 4.3%
32¢46→32 (-14)
open →
4h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Jun 2026?: Exactly 4.1%
1¢6→1 (-5)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Jun 2026?: Exactly 4.1%
1¢6→1 (-5)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Jun 2026?: Exactly 4.1%
6¢1→6 (+5)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Jun 2026?: Exactly 4.1%
1¢6→1 (-5)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Jun 2026?: Exactly 4.1%
6¢1→6 (+5)
open →
4h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Jun 2026?: Exactly 4.1%
6¢1→6 (+5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 07 Jun 2026 19:08:23 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXECONSTATU →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →