SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

U.S. Unemployment Rate Exact Forecast Markets — pricing the ladder, 56 thresholds.

56 live Kalshi contracts (58 audited). Median implied probability sits at 8%. 12 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.6 +19c). 3 contracts carry a live SF thesis. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXECONSTATU.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXECONSTATU
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXECONSTATU
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXECONSTATU",
    "label": "U.S. Unemployment Rate Exact Forecast Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 56,
    "volume24hSum": 9.62,
    "hasThesisCount": 3
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 24 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$10-44%
min $0max $829
Breadth100%0.0pp
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 00:15 UTC
May 17past 6d · UTCMay 23 · 22:23

Live contracts

56

Median IY

8¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$10

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

3

Bucket count

56

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 56 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 0.9pp
0%25%50%75%100%implied EV ≈ 4.493.34.24.44.64.85.5cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in U.S. Unemployment Rate Exact Forecast Markets

Showing top 20 of 56

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Unemployment rate in May 2026?: Exactly 4.3%34¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 400%Resid —$8
Unemployment rate in May 2026?: Exactly 4.2%18¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge +5¢RVol —Resid —$2thesis ◆
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.4%19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.5%20¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.6%21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.7%13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.8%12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 3.3%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 3.4%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.0%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.1%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.2%6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.3%7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.4%13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.5%17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.6%15¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.7%14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.8%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.9%10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 5.0%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
56 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in U.S. Unemployment Rate Exact Forecast Markets

From market_changes
11h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.6%
21¢2→21 (+19)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.4%
19¢2→19 (+17)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.5%
20¢3→20 (+17)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 4.5%
1¢16→1 (-15)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.5%
17¢2→17 (+15)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 4.5%
16¢3→16 (+13)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.6%
15¢2→15 (+13)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.5%
15¢3→15 (+12)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 24 May 2026 00:08:22 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXECONSTATU →

Category view

All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →