SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Election prediction markets — district-level repricing across 2026.

10,373 Kalshi-classified live questions across 10,373 Kalshi contracts, $3,769,464 of 24h volume. 2,926 sit in coin-flip territory. 9,956 markets moved 5cents+ in the last 24h. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=elections.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/elections
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=elections
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 23 Sep 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$3.8M+67%
min $2.3Mmax $4.7M
Breadth-1%+22.4pp
min -44%max 44%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 22:30 UTC
Sep 17past 7d · UTCSep 23 · 22:23

Live contracts

10,373

24h volume

$3.8M

# series in cat

5

curated GO series

Contested

28%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

201

Top mover

+93¢

KXVOTEGENERAL-HOUSEVA7-26DOLL-34

Elections — liquidity topography (top 1,000 of 10,373 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 4.0 → 4.5/h

$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,0001d7d30d90d365d4.54.34.0

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Curated series in Elections

5 hubs · sorted by live count
2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets
KXMIDTERMMOV
177 live
audit 3,883
2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets
KXHOUSERACE
84 live
audit 604
2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN
34 live
audit 2,456
2026 California Primary Election Markets
KXCAPRIMARY
0 live
audit 268
2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets
KXPRIMARYMOV
0 live
audit 60

Top markets in Elections

Showing top 20 of 10,373

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Will Republicans win the House in 2026?: Republican Party9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge +4¢RVol —Resid —$331.7Kthesis ◆
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida: Byron Donalds75¢
IY 30%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$292.2K
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party91¢
IY 28%Cliff 10Edge +5¢RVol —Resid —$211.7Kthesis ◆
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia: Keisha Lance Bottoms56¢
IY 71%Cliff 1Edge +13¢RVol —Resid —$184.5Kthesis ◆
Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party64¢
IY 157%Cliff 2Edge +4¢RVol —Resid —$144.4Kthesis ◆
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?: Ken Paxton42¢
IY 124%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$112.4K
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?: Republicans sweep9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge -8¢RVol —Resid —$110.3Kthesis ◆
Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?: Democrats sweep63¢
IY 164%Cliff 2Edge -14¢RVol —Resid —$84.8Kthesis ◆
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?: James Talarico58¢
IY 65%Cliff 1Edge +4¢RVol —Resid —$77.2Kthesis ◆
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?: Sherrod Brown59¢
IY 63%Cliff 1Edge +5¢RVol —Resid —$74.4Kthesis ◆
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-7?: Bob Brooks82¢
IY 20%Cliff 5Edge +20¢RVol —Resid —$66.7Kthesis ◆
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?: Ashley Hinson55¢
IY 74%Cliff 1Edge +20¢RVol —Resid —$58.1Kthesis ◆
Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance44¢
IY 60%Cliff 1Edge +18¢RVol —Resid —$56.5Kthesis ◆
Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?: D-House, R-Senate26¢
IY 795%Cliff 3Edge +26¢RVol —Resid —$56.3Kthesis ◆
Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party36¢
IY 496%Cliff 2Edge -7¢RVol —Resid —$51.7Kthesis ◆
Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Mark Kelly4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$51.4K
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Massachusetts: Mike Minogue5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$50.0K
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alaska?: Democratic party75¢
IY 30%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$49.7K
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas: Gina Hinojosa27¢
IY 243%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$47.5K
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?: Mike Rogers28¢
IY 231%Cliff 3Edge +18¢RVol —Resid —$44.3Kthesis ◆
10,373 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Elections

From market_changes
9h agoKalshi
Will Douglas Ollivant receive at least 34% of the popular vote in the 2026 VA-07 House election?: At least 34%
95¢2→95 (+93)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Will Seth Bodnar receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Montana Senate election?: At least 15%
96¢4→96 (+92)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District House election be at least 26 percentage points?: McGovern, 26+ pts
93¢1→93 (+92)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District House election be at least 26 percentage points?: McGovern, 26+ pts
1¢93→1 (-92)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Massachusetts's 2nd District House election be at least 26 percentage points?: McGovern, 26+ pts
93¢1→93 (+92)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Texas's 16th District House election be at least 21 percentage points?: Escobar, 21+ pts
92¢1→92 (+91)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Arizona's 3rd District House election be at least 42 percentage points?: Ansari, 42+ pts
3¢94→3 (-91)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the California's 3rd District House election be at least 5 percentage points?: Bera, 5+ pts
93¢2→93 (+91)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 Sep 2026 22:08:41 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=elections →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=elections →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →