SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Election prediction markets — district-level repricing across 2026.

9,206 Kalshi-classified live questions across 9,206 Kalshi contracts, $2,006,994 of 24h volume. 3,553 sit in coin-flip territory. 1,429 markets moved 5cents+ in the last 24h. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=elections.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/elections
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=elections
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 09 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$2.0M+2%
min $1.5Mmax $26.0M
Breadth-26%-16.5pp
min -26%max 32%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 18:30 UTC
Aug 2past 7d · UTCAug 9 · 18:23

Live contracts

9,206

24h volume

$2.0M

# series in cat

5

curated GO series

Contested

39%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

181

Top mover

+74¢

KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVMNNOMD26AKLO-70

Elections — liquidity topography (top 797 of 9,206 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 0.2 → 1.8/h

$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,0001d7d30d90d365d1.81.00.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Curated series in Elections

5 hubs · sorted by live count
2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets
KXMIDTERMMOV
190 live
audit 3,883
2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets
KXHOUSERACE
85 live
audit 604
2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN
42 live
audit 2,456
2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets
KXPRIMARYMOV
37 live
audit 60
2026 California Primary Election Markets
KXCAPRIMARY
0 live
audit 268

Top markets in Elections

Showing top 20 of 9,206

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?: Sherrod Brown48¢
IY 88%Cliff 1Edge +16¢RVol —Resid —$272.9Kthesis ◆
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?: Mike Rogers45¢
IY 99%Cliff 1Edge +27¢RVol 111%Resid —$141.4Kthesis ◆
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14¢
IY 273%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$63.6K
Will Darline Graham finish 1st in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Darline Graham57¢
IY 75%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 230%Resid —$60.0K
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?: Mike Rogers45¢
IY 99%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$53.3K
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?: Jon Husted51¢
IY 78%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$52.3K
Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?: Francesca Hong96¢
IY 18%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$51.8K
Will Republicans win the House in 2026?: Republican Party15¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge +5¢RVol —Resid —$51.1Kthesis ◆
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?: Ken Paxton50¢
IY 81%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$49.9K
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?: Abdul El-Sayed54¢
IY 69%Cliff 1Edge +23¢RVol —Resid —$49.4Kthesis ◆
Will Mike Lindell be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota?: Mike Lindell40¢
IY 638%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 935%Resid —$48.2K
Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party54¢
IY 177%Cliff 1Edge +12¢RVol —Resid —$48.1Kthesis ◆
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?: James Talarico50¢
IY 81%Cliff 1Edge +7¢RVol —Resid —$41.6Kthesis ◆
Who will win the next presidential election?: J.D. Vance18¢
IY 140%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$36.3K
Will David Crowley be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?: David Crowley4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$34.8K
Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Pete Buttigieg5¢
IY 845%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$30.8K
Will James Fishback receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary?: At least 30%5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$28.7K
Will Lisa Demuth be the Republican nominee for Governor in Minnesota?: Lisa Demuth58¢
IY 308%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 574%Resid —$28.1K
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?: Abdul El-Sayed54¢
IY 69%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$26.2K
Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Republican for Feb 2027?: R-House, R-Senate15¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge +7¢RVol —Resid —$22.9Kthesis ◆
9,206 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Elections

From market_changes
21h agoKalshi
Will Amy Klobuchar receive at least 70% of the popular vote in the 2026 Minnesota Democratic gubernatorial primary?: At least 70%
78¢4→78 (+74)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will Amy Klobuchar receive at least 75% of the popular vote in the 2026 Minnesota Democratic gubernatorial primary?: At least 75%
72¢4→72 (+68)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will Amy Klobuchar receive at least 65% of the popular vote in the 2026 Minnesota Democratic gubernatorial primary?: At least 65%
87¢25→87 (+62)
open →
5h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
2¢63→2 (-61)
open →
6h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
63¢2→63 (+61)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Will Amy Klobuchar receive at least 80% of the popular vote in the 2026 Minnesota Democratic gubernatorial primary?: At least 80%
6¢65→6 (-59)
open →
4h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
61¢2→61 (+59)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Ohio's 7th District House election be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts
2¢61→2 (-59)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 09 Aug 2026 18:08:42 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=elections →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=elections →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →