SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Election prediction markets — district-level repricing across 2026.

8,903 Kalshi-classified live questions across 8,903 Kalshi contracts, $2,906,407 of 24h volume. 3,403 sit in coin-flip territory. 713 markets moved 5cents+ in the last 24h. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=elections.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/elections
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=elections
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 18 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$2.9M+16%
min $1.4Mmax $13.2M
Breadth-5%-0.3pp
min -19%max 23%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 02:45 UTC
Aug 11past 7d · UTCAug 18 · 02:23

Live contracts

8,903

24h volume

$2.9M

# series in cat

5

curated GO series

Contested

38%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

194

Top mover

+89¢

KXVOTEPRIMARY-SENATEMAD26SMOU-25

Elections — liquidity topography (top 882 of 8,903 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 0.2 → 3.0/h

$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,0001d7d30d90d365d3.01.60.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Curated series in Elections

5 hubs · sorted by live count
2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets
KXMIDTERMMOV
129 live
audit 3,883
2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets
KXHOUSERACE
43 live
audit 604
2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN
39 live
audit 2,456
2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets
KXPRIMARYMOV
35 live
audit 60
2026 California Primary Election Markets
KXCAPRIMARY
0 live
audit 268

Top markets in Elections

Showing top 20 of 8,903

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party52¢
IY 201%Cliff 1Edge +10¢RVol —Resid —$364.5Kthesis ◆
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?: Jon Husted48¢
IY 89%Cliff 1Edge +10¢RVol —Resid —$301.2Kthesis ◆
Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Jon Ossoff13¢
IY 301%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$168.0K
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Gavin Newsom16¢
IY 236%Cliff 5Edge +4¢RVol —Resid —$143.1Kthesis ◆
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17¢
IY 219%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$111.8K
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?: Sherrod Brown51¢
IY 79%Cliff 1Edge +13¢RVol —Resid —$100.1Kthesis ◆
Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Pete Buttigieg5¢
IY 854%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$94.9K
Who will win the next presidential election?: Jon Ossoff10¢
IY 279%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$90.8K
Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?: James Fishback21¢
IY 376%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 810%Resid —$78.4K
Will Republicans win the House in 2026?: Republican Party14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge +4¢RVol —Resid —$63.9Kthesis ◆
Who will win the next presidential election?: Pete Buttigieg3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$55.8K
Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance43¢
IY 60%Cliff 1Edge +17¢RVol —Resid —$53.3Kthesis ◆
Who will win the next presidential election?: Mark Kelly3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$45.9K
Will Oliver Larkin be the Democratic nominee for FL-25?: Oliver Larkin8¢
IY 949%Cliff 12Edge —RVol 575%Resid —$43.3K
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?: Ken Paxton50¢
IY 82%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$36.7K
Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?: D-House, D-Senate46¢
IY 256%Cliff 1Edge +13¢RVol —Resid —$36.2Kthesis ◆
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?: Abdul El-Sayed57¢
IY 62%Cliff 1Edge +20¢RVol —Resid —$35.2Kthesis ◆
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?: Mike Rogers42¢
IY 114%Cliff 1Edge +24¢RVol —Resid —$34.8Kthesis ◆
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska?: Republican party46¢
IY 97%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$33.1K
Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York: Bruce Blakeman6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$29.4K
8,903 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Elections

From market_changes
1h agoKalshi
Will Seth Moulton receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary?: At least 25%
92¢3→92 (+89)
open →
1h agoKalshi
Will Gentner Drummond receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff?: At least 42%
91¢3→91 (+88)
open →
1h agoKalshi
Will Mike Mazzei receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff?: At least 42%
93¢6→93 (+87)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-47?: Dave Min
90¢3→90 (+87)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for OH-13?: Emilia Sykes
91¢4→91 (+87)
open →
1h agoKalshi
Will Donald Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election before Oct 26, 2026?: Yes
87¢2→87 (+85)
open →
7h agoKalshi
Will Democratic win the House race for CA-47?: Dave Min
5¢90→5 (-85)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Will Likud win above 17 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?: Above 17
84¢3→84 (+81)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 18 Aug 2026 02:38:41 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=elections →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=elections →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →