SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Election prediction markets — district-level repricing across 2026.

8,768 Kalshi-classified live questions across 8,768 Kalshi contracts, $966,653 of 24h volume. 3,496 sit in coin-flip territory. 650 markets moved 5cents+ in the last 24h. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=elections.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/elections
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=elections
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$966.7K-29%
min $642.1Kmax $2.2M
Breadth2%+9.8pp
min -25%max 19%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 17:00 UTC
Jun 18past 7d · UTCJun 25 · 16:23

Live contracts

8,768

24h volume

$966.7K

# series in cat

5

curated GO series

Contested

40%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

97

Top mover

-94¢

KXHOUSERACE-TN03-26-R

Elections — liquidity topography (top 703 of 8,768 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 0.2 → 2.1/h

$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,0001d7d30d90d365d2.11.20.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Curated series in Elections

5 hubs · sorted by live count
2026 Election Voter Turnout Markets
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN
121 live
audit 2,456
2026 U.S. House Race Winner Markets
KXHOUSERACE
109 live
audit 604
2026 Election Margin of Victory Markets
KXMIDTERMMOV
87 live
audit 3,883
2026 Primary Margin of Victory Markets
KXPRIMARYMOV
33 live
audit 60
2026 California Primary Election Markets
KXCAPRIMARY
11 live
audit 268

Top markets in Elections

Showing top 20 of 8,768

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Who will win the next presidential election?: Marco Rubio19¢
IY 126%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$132.2K
Who will win the governorship in California?: Steve Hilton9¢
IY 744%Cliff 10Edge +6¢RVol —Resid —$55.8Kthesis ◆
Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Jon Ossoff11¢
IY 341%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$38.6K
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?: Melat Kiros65¢
IY 40%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 747%Resid —$34.7K
Will Republicans win the House in 2026?: Republican Party21¢
IY 622%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$32.1K
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?: Ken Paxton59¢
IY 51%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$29.0K
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?: Susan Collins41¢
IY 106%Cliff 1Edge +13¢RVol —Resid —$25.5Kthesis ◆
Who will win the next presidential election?: Gavin Newsom13¢
IY 198%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$24.7K
Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Andy Beshear3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$21.1K
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?: Diana DeGette34¢
IY 143%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$20.4K
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party78¢
IY 47%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$19.5K
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10¢
IY 379%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$18.4K
Will Michael Bennet be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Colorado?: Michael Bennet65¢
IY 40%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 267%Resid —$17.6K
Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Pete Buttigieg5¢
IY 801%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$17.3K
Will Genter Drummond be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oklahoma?: Gentner Drummond28¢
IY 717%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$13.2K
Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Josh Shapiro5¢
IY 801%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$13.0K
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?: James Fishback5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$11.8K
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Gavin Newsom23¢
IY 141%Cliff 3Edge +5¢RVol —Resid —$11.6Kthesis ◆
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?: Graham Platner59¢
IY 51%Cliff 1Edge +12¢RVol —Resid —$10.9Kthesis ◆
Will Oliver Larkin be the Democratic nominee for FL-25?: Oliver Larkin24¢
IY 233%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$10.7K
8,768 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Elections

From market_changes
18h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-03?: Republican party
1¢95→1 (-94)
open →
18h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-03?: Republican party
95¢1→95 (+94)
open →
19h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-03?: Republican party
1¢95→1 (-94)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-18?: Democratic party
84¢1→84 (+83)
open →
1d agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-03?: Republican party
1¢82→1 (-81)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-03?: Republican party
1¢82→1 (-81)
open →
1d agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-03?: Republican party
82¢1→82 (+81)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will Republican win the House race for TN-03?: Republican party
82¢1→82 (+81)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 25 Jun 2026 16:38:42 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=elections →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=elections →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →