SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

La Liga Match Spread Markets — 40 contracts, SF signal on every row.

40 live Kalshi contracts (57 audited). Median implied probability sits at 7%. 19 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY17OVIALA-ALA1 -13c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 9.5pp · cheapest KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY17SEVRMA-SEV2 · richest KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY14RMAOVI-RMA1.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXLALIGASPREAD.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXLALIGASPREAD
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXLALIGASPREAD
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXLALIGASPREAD",
    "label": "La Liga Match Spread Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 40,
    "volume24hSum": 1687.56,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00892
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 13 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$1.7K-59%
min $1.6Kmax $11.3K
Breadth14%+30.1pp
min -16%max 14%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 12:00 UTC
May 12past 31h · UTCMay 13 · 11:43

Live contracts

40

Median IY

7¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$1.7K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-13¢

KXLALIGASPREAD-26MAY17OVIALA-ALA1

La Liga Match Spread Markets — liquidity topography (top 4 of 40 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 2199.7 → 11714.1%

$10$100$1,0001d7d11714.16956.92199.7

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in La Liga Match Spread Markets

Showing top 20 of 40

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Real Madrid wins by over 2.5 goals?: Real Madrid wins by over 2.5 goals30¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.4K
Barcelona wins by over 1.5 goals?: Barcelona wins by over 1.5 goals43¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 535%Resid —$265
Valencia wins by over 1.5 goals?: Valencia wins by over 1.5 goals17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$56
Real Madrid wins by over 1.5 goals?: Real Madrid wins by over 1.5 goals52¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 149%Resid —$1
Vallecano wins by over 1.5 goals?: Vallecano wins by over 1.5 goals7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Valencia wins by over 2.5 goals?: Valencia wins by over 2.5 goals5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Girona wins by over 2.5 goals?: Girona wins by over 2.5 goals8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Real Sociedad wins by over 1.5 goals?: Real Sociedad wins by over 1.5 goals8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Girona wins by over 1.5 goals?: Girona wins by over 1.5 goals21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 469%Resid —$0
Levante wins by over 1.5 goals?: Levante wins by over 1.5 goals14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Levante wins by over 2.5 goals?: Levante wins by over 2.5 goals4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Mallorca wins by over 1.5 goals?: Mallorca wins by over 1.5 goals5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Bilbao wins by over 1.5 goals?: Bilbao wins by over 1.5 goals15¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Bilbao wins by over 2.5 goals?: Bilbao wins by over 2.5 goals4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Atletico wins by over 1.5 goals?: Atletico wins by over 1.5 goals28¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Atletico wins by over 2.5 goals?: Atletico wins by over 2.5 goals7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Girona wins by over 1.5 goals?: Girona wins by over 1.5 goals5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Barcelona wins by over 2.5 goals?: Barcelona wins by over 2.5 goals23¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 936%Resid —$0
Elche wins by over 1.5 goals?: Elche wins by over 1.5 goals11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Getafe wins by over 1.5 goals?: Getafe wins by over 1.5 goals5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
40 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in La Liga Match Spread Markets

From market_changes
9h agoKalshi
Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals?: Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals
9¢22→9 (-13)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals?: Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals
21¢10→21 (+11)
open →
7h agoKalshi
Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals?: Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals
21¢10→21 (+11)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals?: Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals
8¢19→8 (-11)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals?: Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals
18¢8→18 (+10)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals?: Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals
9¢19→9 (-10)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals?: Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals
19¢9→19 (+10)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals?: Alaves wins by over 1.5 goals
9¢18→9 (-9)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 13 May 2026 11:53:25 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXLALIGASPREAD →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →