SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

League of Legends Map Winner Markets — pricing the ladder, 12 thresholds.

12 live Kalshi contracts (162 audited). Median implied probability sits at 47%. 35 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXLOLMAP-26JUN272300TLT1-1-T1 -78c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXLOLMAP.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXLOLMAP
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXLOLMAP
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXLOLMAP",
    "label": "League of Legends Map Winner Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 12,
    "volume24hSum": 73.28,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$73
min $0max $33
Breadth43%-57.1pp
min 25%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 12:30 UTC
Jun 18past 7d · UTCJun 25 · 10:23

Live contracts

12

Median IY

47¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$73

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Bucket count

12

thresholds fitted

Threshold ladder — 12 contracts at one resolution

Mean fit deviation 5.5pp
0%25%50%75%100%11cdfsurvivalimplied EV

Bars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.

Top markets in League of Legends Map Winner Markets

Showing top 12 of 12

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will T1 win map 2 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: T181¢
IY 515%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$28
Will Deep Cross Gaming win map 1 in the Deep Cross Gaming vs. Karmine Corp match?: Deep Cross Gaming21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$18
Will T1 win map 1 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: T181¢
IY 515%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$17
Will T1 win map 3 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: T182¢
IY 482%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$11
Will Team Liquid win map 3 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: Team Liquid10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Team Liquid win map 1 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: Team Liquid12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Karmine Corp win map 1 in the Deep Cross Gaming vs. Karmine Corp match?: Karmine Corp73¢
IY 802%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Deep Cross Gaming win map 2 in the Deep Cross Gaming vs. Karmine Corp match?: Deep Cross Gaming21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Karmine Corp win map 2 in the Deep Cross Gaming vs. Karmine Corp match?: Karmine Corp73¢
IY 802%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Deep Cross Gaming win map 3 in the Deep Cross Gaming vs. Karmine Corp match?: Deep Cross Gaming21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Team Liquid win map 2 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: Team Liquid11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Karmine Corp win map 3 in the Deep Cross Gaming vs. Karmine Corp match?: Karmine Corp73¢
IY 802%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
12 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in League of Legends Map Winner Markets

From market_changes
5h agoKalshi
Will T1 win map 1 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: T1
3¢81→3 (-78)
open →
5h agoKalshi
Will T1 win map 2 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: T1
3¢80→3 (-77)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will T1 win map 1 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: T1
80¢3→80 (+77)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will T1 win map 2 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: T1
80¢3→80 (+77)
open →
7h agoKalshi
Will T1 win map 2 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: T1
3¢79→3 (-76)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Will T1 win map 1 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: T1
79¢3→79 (+76)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Will T1 win map 2 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: T1
78¢3→78 (+75)
open →
7h agoKalshi
Will T1 win map 2 in the Team Liquid vs. T1 match?: T1
78¢3→78 (+75)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 25 Jun 2026 12:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXLOLMAP →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →