SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLB Game First-5-Innings Markets — 112 contracts, SF signal on every row.

112 live Kalshi contracts (84 audited). Median implied probability sits at 35%. 656 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMLBF5TOTAL-26MAY241920TEXLAA-3 +64c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 24.2pp · cheapest KXMLBF5SPREAD-26MAY241420HOUCHC-HOU3 · richest KXMLBF5TOTAL-26MAY241610ATHSD-1.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLBF.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLBF
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLBF
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLBF",
    "label": "MLB Game First-5-Innings Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 112,
    "volume24hSum": 7478.84,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.04855
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 24 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$7.5K-57%
min $0max $70.8K
Breadth51%-5.7pp
min 35%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 09:45 UTC
May 17past 7d · UTCMay 24 · 08:23

Live contracts

112

Median IY

35¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$7.5K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+64¢

KXMLBF5TOTAL-26MAY241920TEXLAA-3

MLB Game First-5-Innings Markets — liquidity topography (top 42 of 112 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 3603.9 → 100000.0%

$10$100$1,0001d7d100000.051801.93603.9

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLB Game First-5-Innings Markets

Showing top 20 of 112

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Seattle vs Kansas City first 5 innings runs?: Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings46¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.2K
Texas vs Los Angeles A first 5 innings winner?: Tie16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$984
Seattle vs Kansas City first 5 innings runs?: Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings63¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$557
Houston vs Chicago C first 5 innings winner?: Chicago C wins first 5 innings49¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$512
Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee first 5 innings runs?: Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings75¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$506
Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee first 5 innings runs?: Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings47¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$366
Seattle vs Kansas City first 5 innings winner?: Tie14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$279
Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee first 5 innings winner?: Milwaukee wins first 5 innings32¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$238
Houston vs Chicago C first 5 innings runs?: Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings54¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$235
Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee first 5 innings winner?: Los Angeles D wins first 5 innings53¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$225
Washington vs Atlanta first 5 innings winner?: Atlanta wins first 5 innings46¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$224
Washington vs Atlanta first 5 innings winner?: Washington wins first 5 innings36¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$126
Washington vs Atlanta first 5 innings runs?: Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings50¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$109
Los Angeles D wins first 5 innings by over 1.5 runs?: Los Angeles D -1.5 first 5 innings37¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$107
Washington vs Atlanta first 5 innings runs?: Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings38¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$100
Los Angeles D vs Milwaukee first 5 innings winner?: Tie14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$93
Milwaukee wins first 5 innings by over 1.5 runs?: Milwaukee -1.5 first 5 innings20¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$80
A's vs San Diego first 5 innings winner?: San Diego wins first 5 innings49¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$76
Colorado vs Arizona first 5 innings winner?: Colorado wins first 5 innings32¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$74
Los Angeles D wins first 5 innings by over 2.5 runs?: Los Angeles D -2.5 first 5 innings25¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$70
112 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in MLB Game First-5-Innings Markets

From market_changes
1h agoKalshi
Texas vs Los Angeles A first 5 innings runs?: Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings
71¢7→71 (+64)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Detroit vs Baltimore first 5 innings runs?: Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings
62¢3→62 (+59)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Tampa Bay vs New York Y first 5 innings runs?: Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings
71¢13→71 (+58)
open →
6h agoKalshi
Houston vs Chicago C first 5 innings runs?: Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings
60¢4→60 (+56)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Detroit vs Baltimore first 5 innings runs?: Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings
61¢8→61 (+53)
open →
7h agoKalshi
New York M vs Miami first 5 innings runs?: Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings
65¢13→65 (+52)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Tampa Bay vs New York Y first 5 innings runs?: Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings
57¢6→57 (+51)
open →
13h agoKalshi
Colorado vs Arizona first 5 innings runs?: Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings
58¢8→58 (+50)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 24 May 2026 09:08:22 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLBF →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →