SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLB Game First-5-Innings Markets — 42 contracts, SF signal on every row.

42 live Kalshi contracts (84 audited). Median implied probability sits at 39%. 281 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMLBF5TOTAL-26JUN041335BALBOS-3 +78c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 20.0pp · cheapest KXMLBF5-26JUN042005ATHCHC-TIE · richest KXMLBF5TOTAL-26JUN042140LADAZ-1.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLBF.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLBF
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLBF
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLBF",
    "label": "MLB Game First-5-Innings Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 42,
    "volume24hSum": 10859.35,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.10352
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 04 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$10.9K+132%
min $0max $224.4K
Breadth95%+65.9pp
min 16%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 12:15 UTC
May 28past 7d · UTCJun 4 · 06:23

Live contracts

42

Median IY

39¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$10.9K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+78¢

KXMLBF5TOTAL-26JUN041335BALBOS-3

MLB Game First-5-Innings Markets — liquidity topography (top 22 of 42 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 3833.0 → 93350.4%

$10$100$1,0001d7d93350.448591.73833.0

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLB Game First-5-Innings Markets

Showing top 20 of 42

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Los Angeles D vs Arizona first 5 innings winner?: Los Angeles D wins first 5 innings44¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$4.3K
A's vs Chicago C first 5 innings winner?: A's wins first 5 innings39¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.7K
Pittsburgh vs Houston first 5 innings runs?: Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings61¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.1K
Pittsburgh vs Houston first 5 innings winner?: Houston wins first 5 innings39¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$860
Los Angeles D vs Arizona first 5 innings winner?: Tie12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$744
Los Angeles D vs Arizona first 5 innings runs?: Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings55¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$629
Los Angeles D wins first 5 innings by over 1.5 runs?: Los Angeles D -1.5 first 5 innings31¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$302
A's vs Chicago C first 5 innings winner?: Chicago C wins first 5 innings44¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$283
Arizona wins first 5 innings by over 2.5 runs?: Arizona -2.5 first 5 innings16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$237
Los Angeles D vs Arizona first 5 innings winner?: Arizona wins first 5 innings41¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$199
Pittsburgh vs Houston first 5 innings winner?: Tie13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$134
Los Angeles D vs Arizona first 5 innings runs?: Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings44¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$130
Los Angeles D vs Arizona first 5 innings runs?: Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings31¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$50
A's vs Chicago C first 5 innings runs?: Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings38¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$47
A's vs Chicago C first 5 innings runs?: Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings49¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$46
Los Angeles D wins first 5 innings by over 2.5 runs?: Los Angeles D -2.5 first 5 innings20¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$35
A's vs Chicago C first 5 innings winner?: Tie10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$19
A's wins first 5 innings by over 1.5 runs?: A's -1.5 first 5 innings26¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$16
Pittsburgh vs Houston first 5 innings winner?: Pittsburgh wins first 5 innings42¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$13
A's vs Chicago C first 5 innings runs?: Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings49¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$10
42 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in MLB Game First-5-Innings Markets

From market_changes
9h agoKalshi
Baltimore vs Boston first 5 innings runs?: Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings
82¢4→82 (+78)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Los Angeles D vs Arizona first 5 innings runs?: Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings
79¢4→79 (+75)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Los Angeles D vs Arizona first 5 innings runs?: Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings
85¢11→85 (+74)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Pittsburgh vs Houston first 5 innings runs?: Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings
82¢11→82 (+71)
open →
8h agoKalshi
A's vs Chicago C first 5 innings runs?: Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings
80¢11→80 (+69)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Toronto vs Atlanta first 5 innings runs?: Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings
70¢2→70 (+68)
open →
6h agoKalshi
San Francisco vs Milwaukee first 5 innings runs?: Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings
78¢12→78 (+66)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Toronto vs Atlanta first 5 innings runs?: Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings
80¢14→80 (+66)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 04 Jun 2026 11:38:24 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLBF →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →