SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLB Game Winner Markets — 56 contracts, SF signal on every row.

56 live Kalshi contracts (72 audited). Median implied probability sits at 49%. 63 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMLBGAME-26JUN231840KCTB-TB +47c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 6.5pp · cheapest KXMLBGAME-26JUN231840KCTB-KC · richest KXMLBGAME-26JUN221840KCTB-TB.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLBGAME.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLBGAME
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLBGAME
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLBGAME",
    "label": "MLB Game Winner Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 56,
    "volume24hSum": 8471.25,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.12545
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 21 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$8.5K-25%
min $2.0Kmax $80.4K
Breadth100%0.0pp
min 8%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 13:45 UTC
Jun 14past 7d · UTCJun 21 · 12:23

Live contracts

56

Median IY

49¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$8.5K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+47¢

KXMLBGAME-26JUN231840KCTB-TB

MLB Game Winner Markets — liquidity topography (top 53 of 56 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 4823.2 → 13479.5%

$10$100$1,0001d7d13479.59151.44823.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLB Game Winner Markets

Showing top 20 of 56

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Arizona vs St. Louis Winner?: St. Louis54¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$2.1K
Los Angeles D vs Minnesota Winner?: Los Angeles D52¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.5K
Atlanta vs San Diego Winner?: Atlanta46¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$508
Texas vs Miami Winner?: Miami52¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$480
Boston vs Colorado Winner?: Boston58¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$453
New York Y vs Detroit Winner?: New York Y49¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$394
Arizona vs St. Louis Winner?: Arizona39¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$282
Houston vs Toronto Winner?: Houston50¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$218
New York Y vs Detroit Winner?: Detroit44¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$193
Cleveland vs Chicago WS Winner?: Cleveland53¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$188
Los Angeles D vs Minnesota Winner?: Minnesota47¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$183
Philadelphia vs Washington Winner?: Philadelphia47¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$178
Milwaukee vs Cincinnati Winner?: Cincinnati38¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$134
Baltimore vs Los Angeles A Winner?: Los Angeles A40¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$112
Arizona vs St. Louis Winner?: St. Louis53¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$109
Milwaukee vs Cincinnati Winner?: Milwaukee57¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$108
Los Angeles D vs Minnesota Winner?: Los Angeles D54¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$103
Philadelphia vs Washington Winner?: Washington49¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$102
Chicago C vs New York M Winner?: Chicago C39¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$96
Baltimore vs Los Angeles A Winner?: Baltimore58¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$96
56 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in MLB Game Winner Markets

From market_changes
14h agoKalshi
Kansas City vs Tampa Bay Winner?: Tampa Bay
60¢13→60 (+47)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Los Angeles D vs Minnesota Winner?: Los Angeles D
52¢8→52 (+44)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Boston vs Colorado Winner?: Boston
55¢13→55 (+42)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Chicago C vs New York M Winner?: New York M
54¢13→54 (+41)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Philadelphia vs Washington Winner?: Philadelphia
55¢14→55 (+41)
open →
11h agoKalshi
Arizona vs St. Louis Winner?: St. Louis
53¢13→53 (+40)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Texas vs Miami Winner?: Miami
52¢13→52 (+39)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Houston vs Toronto Winner?: Toronto
54¢16→54 (+38)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 21 Jun 2026 13:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLBGAME →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →