SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLB Player Total Bases Prop Markets — 178 contracts, SF signal on every row.

178 live Kalshi contracts (105 audited). Median implied probability sits at 18%. 160 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMLBTB-26MAY262145AZSF-AZCCARROLL7-2 +42c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 17.3pp · cheapest KXMLBTB-26MAY262210COLLAD-LADSOHTANI17-7 · richest KXMLBTB-26MAY261940NYYKC-NYYAJUDGE99-2.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLBTB.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLBTB
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLBTB
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLBTB",
    "label": "MLB Player Total Bases Prop Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 178,
    "volume24hSum": 84.63,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00794
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 26 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100-19306.0
Vol Flow$85+281%
min $0max $10.7K
Breadth90%+23.5pp
min 25%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 06:15 UTC
May 19past 7d · UTCMay 25 · 22:23

Live contracts

178

Median IY

18¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$85

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+42¢

KXMLBTB-26MAY262145AZSF-AZCCARROLL7-2

MLB Player Total Bases Prop Markets — liquidity topography (top 6 of 178 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 13205.3 → 100000.0%

$10$1001d7d100000.056602.713205.3

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLB Player Total Bases Prop Markets

Showing top 20 of 178

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Pete Alonso: 4+ total bases?: Pete Alonso: 4+19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$50
Corbin Carroll: 2+ total bases?: Corbin Carroll: 2+41¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$11
Ketel Marte: 2+ total bases?: Ketel Marte: 2+42¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$11
Junior Caminero: 3+ total bases?: Junior Caminero: 3+29¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$7
CJ Abrams: 5+ total bases?: CJ Abrams: 5+4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$5
CJ Abrams: 2+ total bases?: CJ Abrams: 2+31¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
José Ramírez: 2+ total bases?: José Ramírez: 2+36¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
James Wood: 2+ total bases?: James Wood: 2+36¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
James Wood: 3+ total bases?: James Wood: 3+22¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
James Wood: 4+ total bases?: James Wood: 4+16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
James Wood: 5+ total bases?: James Wood: 5+7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CJ Abrams: 3+ total bases?: CJ Abrams: 3+18¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Steven Kwan: 2+ total bases?: Steven Kwan: 2+20¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
CJ Abrams: 4+ total bases?: CJ Abrams: 4+12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Pete Alonso: 6+ total bases?: Pete Alonso: 6+4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Jonathan Aranda: 2+ total bases?: Jonathan Aranda: 2+40¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Junior Caminero: 6+ total bases?: Junior Caminero: 6+6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Jonathan Aranda: 3+ total bases?: Jonathan Aranda: 3+24¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Gunnar Henderson: 6+ total bases?: Gunnar Henderson: 6+4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Gunnar Henderson: 2+ total bases?: Gunnar Henderson: 2+42¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
178 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in MLB Player Total Bases Prop Markets

From market_changes
3h agoKalshi
Corbin Carroll: 2+ total bases?: Corbin Carroll: 2+
44¢2→44 (+42)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Yordan Alvarez: 2+ total bases?: Yordan Alvarez: 2+
44¢3→44 (+41)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Mookie Betts: 2+ total bases?: Mookie Betts: 2+
45¢4→45 (+41)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Junior Caminero: 2+ total bases?: Junior Caminero: 2+
44¢3→44 (+41)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Gunnar Henderson: 2+ total bases?: Gunnar Henderson: 2+
42¢3→42 (+39)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Brandon Nimmo: 2+ total bases?: Brandon Nimmo: 2+
42¢4→42 (+38)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Jonathan Aranda: 2+ total bases?: Jonathan Aranda: 2+
40¢3→40 (+37)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Freddie Freeman: 2+ total bases?: Freddie Freeman: 2+
40¢4→40 (+36)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 26 May 2026 06:08:23 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLBTB →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →