SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLB Team Run Total Markets — 14 contracts, SF signal on every row.

14 live Kalshi contracts (84 audited). Median implied probability sits at 41%. 370 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY241610COLAZ-AZ4 +46c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 28.6pp · richest KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY241920TEXLAA-LAA3.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLBTEAMTOTAL.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLBTEAMTOTAL
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLBTEAMTOTAL
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLBTEAMTOTAL",
    "label": "MLB Team Run Total Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 14,
    "volume24hSum": 213.93,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.03466
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 24 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100+589.0
Vol Flow$214-62%
min $0max $20.1K
Breadth25%-60.7pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 16:15 UTC
May 17past 7d · UTCMay 24 · 14:23

Live contracts

14

Median IY

41¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$214

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+46¢

KXMLBTEAMTOTAL-26MAY241610COLAZ-AZ4

MLB Team Run Total Markets — liquidity topography (top 3 of 14 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 10021.5 → 29353.1%

$10$1001d7d29353.119687.310021.5

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLB Team Run Total Markets

Showing top 14 of 14

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Texas score over 3.5 runs?: Texas over 3.5 runs scored52¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$207
Will Los Angeles A score over 5.5 runs?: Los Angeles A over 5.5 runs scored27¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$6
Will Texas score over 4.5 runs?: Texas over 4.5 runs scored39¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Will Los Angeles A score over 4.5 runs?: Los Angeles A over 4.5 runs scored42¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Los Angeles A score over 6.5 runs?: Los Angeles A over 6.5 runs scored22¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Los Angeles A score over 7.5 runs?: Los Angeles A over 7.5 runs scored11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Texas score over 1.5 runs?: Texas over 1.5 runs scored62¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 660%Resid —$0
Will Texas score over 2.5 runs?: Texas over 2.5 runs scored67¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Texas score over 5.5 runs?: Texas over 5.5 runs scored27¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Texas score over 6.5 runs?: Texas over 6.5 runs scored19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Los Angeles A score over 1.5 runs?: Los Angeles A over 1.5 runs scored50¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Texas score over 7.5 runs?: Texas over 7.5 runs scored11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Los Angeles A score over 2.5 runs?: Los Angeles A over 2.5 runs scored70¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Los Angeles A score over 3.5 runs?: Los Angeles A over 3.5 runs scored55¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
14 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in MLB Team Run Total Markets

From market_changes
16h agoKalshi
Will Arizona score over 3.5 runs?: Arizona over 3.5 runs scored
66¢20→66 (+46)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Will Los Angeles D score over 4.5 runs?: Los Angeles D over 4.5 runs scored
47¢7→47 (+40)
open →
13h agoKalshi
Will Chicago C score over 4.5 runs?: Chicago C over 4.5 runs scored
41¢3→41 (+38)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Will St. Louis score over 3.5 runs?: St. Louis over 3.5 runs scored
61¢23→61 (+38)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Will Seattle score over 3.5 runs?: Seattle over 3.5 runs scored
61¢23→61 (+38)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Will Los Angeles D score over 3.5 runs?: Los Angeles D over 3.5 runs scored
60¢23→60 (+37)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Will Atlanta score over 3.5 runs?: Atlanta over 3.5 runs scored
57¢21→57 (+36)
open →
13h agoKalshi
Will Chicago C score over 3.5 runs?: Chicago C over 3.5 runs scored
56¢21→56 (+35)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 24 May 2026 14:38:24 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLBTEAMTOTAL →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →