SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLS Match Goals Total Markets — 150 contracts, SF signal on every row.

150 live Kalshi contracts (116 audited). Median implied probability sits at 53%. 8 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMLSTOTAL-26JUL25PORRSL-1 +65c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 35.2pp · cheapest KXMLSTOTAL-26JUL25NEATL-6 · richest KXMLSTOTAL-26JUL25SJLAG-1.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLSTOTAL.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLSTOTAL
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLSTOTAL
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLSTOTAL",
    "label": "MLS Match Goals Total Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 150,
    "volume24hSum": 3219.41,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.01095
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 20 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$3.2K+234%
min $460max $8.5K
Breadth100%-46.3pp
min -100%max 92%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 20:45 UTC
Jul 13past 7d · UTCJul 20 · 20:23

Live contracts

150

Median IY

53¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$3.2K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+65¢

KXMLSTOTAL-26JUL25PORRSL-1

MLS Match Goals Total Markets — liquidity topography (top 37 of 150 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 99.8 → 29909.2%

$10$100$1,0001d7d29909.215004.599.8

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLS Match Goals Total Markets

Showing top 20 of 150

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will over 3.5 goals be scored?: Over 3.5 goals scored41¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.5K
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored71¢
IY 925%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$268
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored55¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 140%Resid —$240
Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored87¢
IY 338%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$174
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored69¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 113%Resid —$147
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored70¢
IY 818%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 834%Resid —$134
Will over 3.5 goals be scored?: Over 3.5 goals scored31¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$133
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored59¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 131%Resid —$95
Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored90¢
IY 211%Cliff 9Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$80
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored64¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 82%Resid —$75
Will over 2.5 goals be scored?: Over 2.5 goals scored74¢
IY 666%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$70
Will over 3.5 goals be scored?: Over 3.5 goals scored49¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$53
Will over 3.5 goals be scored?: Over 3.5 goals scored38¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$46
Will over 3.5 goals be scored?: Over 3.5 goals scored39¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$33
Will over 3.5 goals be scored?: Over 3.5 goals scored35¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 228%Resid —$33
Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored76¢
IY 713%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 151%Resid —$32
Will over 0.5 goals be scored?: Over 0.5 goals scored92¢
IY 166%Cliff 12Edge —RVol 647%Resid —$28
Will over 1.5 goals be scored?: Over 1.5 goals scored87¢
IY 338%Cliff 7Edge —RVol 102%Resid —$21
Will over 3.5 goals be scored?: Over 3.5 goals scored31¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$14
Will over 3.5 goals be scored?: Over 3.5 goals scored30¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$14
150 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in MLS Match Goals Total Markets

From market_changes
1d agoKalshi
Will over 0.5 goals be scored?: Over 0.5 goals scored
91¢26→91 (+65)
open →
1d agoKalshi
Will over 5.5 goals be scored?: Over 5.5 goals scored
3¢10→3 (-7)
open →
1d agoKalshi
Will over 5.5 goals be scored?: Over 5.5 goals scored
9¢3→9 (+6)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will over 5.5 goals be scored?: Over 5.5 goals scored
3¢8→3 (-5)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will over 5.5 goals be scored?: Over 5.5 goals scored
8¢13→8 (-5)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will over 5.5 goals be scored?: Over 5.5 goals scored
6¢11→6 (-5)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will over 5.5 goals be scored?: Over 5.5 goals scored
13¢8→13 (+5)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Will over 5.5 goals be scored?: Over 5.5 goals scored
14¢9→14 (+5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 20 Jul 2026 20:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLSTOTAL →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →