SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

NBA Draft Pick-Position Markets — 84 contracts, SF signal on every row.

84 live Kalshi contracts (60 audited). Median implied probability sits at 8%. 2 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-6-KFLE -7c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 8.0pp · cheapest KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-2-BMUL · richest KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-4-CWIL.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXNBADRAFTPICK.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXNBADRAFTPICK
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXNBADRAFTPICK
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXNBADRAFTPICK",
    "label": "NBA Draft Pick-Position Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 84,
    "volume24hSum": 6049.19,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00087
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 28 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100-23.0
Vol Flow$6.0K-51%
min $1.5Kmax $12.3K
Breadth-100%-200.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 14:45 UTC
May 22past 7d · UTCMay 28 · 14:23

Live contracts

84

Median IY

8¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$6.0K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-7¢

KXNBADRAFTPICK-26-6-KFLE

NBA Draft Pick-Position Markets — liquidity topography (top 30 of 84 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 537.3 → 33724.8%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d33724.817131.1537.3

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in NBA Draft Pick-Position Markets

Showing top 20 of 84

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Who will be picked second in the Pro Men's Basketball Draft?: Darryn Peterson56¢
IY 610%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 379%Resid —$2.0K
Who will be picked second in the Pro Men's Basketball Draft?: Cameron Boozer25¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$783
Will Kingston Flemings be picked 5th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Kingston Flemings9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$417
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be picked 5th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Mikel Brown Jr.11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$392
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be picked 6th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Darius Acuff Jr.21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$229
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be picked 7th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Mikel Brown Jr.13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$220
Who will be picked second in the Pro Men's Basketball Draft?: AJ Dybantsa14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$203
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be picked 9th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Mikel Brown Jr.13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$187
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be picked 6th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Mikel Brown Jr.17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$155
Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Cameron Boozer59¢
IY 540%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$145
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be picked 5th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Darius Acuff Jr.19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$129
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be picked 7th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Darius Acuff Jr.17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$115
Will Cameron Boozer be picked 4th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Cameron Boozer16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$105
Will Caleb Wilson be picked 4th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Caleb Wilson66¢
IY 537%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$104
Will Keaton Wagler be picked 5th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Keaton Wagler28¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 521%Resid —$100
Will Aday Mara be picked 7th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Aday Mara4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$100
Will Keaton Wagler be picked 6th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Keaton Wagler9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$99
Who will be picked third in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Darryn Peterson8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$91
Will Aday Mara be picked 8th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Aday Mara17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$90
Will Kingston Flemings be picked 9th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Kingston Flemings8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$88
84 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in NBA Draft Pick-Position Markets

From market_changes
6h agoKalshi
Will Kingston Flemings be picked 6th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Kingston Flemings
4¢11→4 (-7)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will Keaton Wagler be picked 5th in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Keaton Wagler
25¢30→25 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 28 May 2026 14:08:25 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXNBADRAFTPICK →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →