SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

NBA Draft Pick-Position Markets — 5 contracts, SF signal on every row.

5 live Kalshi contracts (60 audited). Median implied probability sits at 4%. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 10.4pp · cheapest KXNBADRAFTPICK-27-1-BMCC · richest KXNBADRAFTPICK-27-1-TSTO.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXNBADRAFTPICK.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXNBADRAFTPICK
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXNBADRAFTPICK
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXNBADRAFTPICK",
    "label": "NBA Draft Pick-Position Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 5,
    "volume24hSum": 13,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00009
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 15 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 15:45 UTC
Vol Flow$13-90%
min $12max $891
Breadth—
warming up — first reading at 15:45 UTC
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 15:45 UTC
Jul 8past 7d · UTCJul 15 · 14:23

Live contracts

5

Median IY

4¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$13

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

—

no 24h moves

NBA Draft Pick-Position Markets — liquidity topography (top 2 of 5 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 124.6 → 2447.3%

$101d7d30d90d365d2447.31285.9124.6

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in NBA Draft Pick-Position Markets

Showing top 5 of 5

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Jordan Smith Jr. be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Jordan Smith Jr.4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$10
Will Tyran Stokes be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Tyran Stokes45¢
IY 125%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$3
Will Bruce Branch III be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Bruce Branch III4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Brandon McCoy be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Brandon McCoy3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Caleb Holt be picked 1st in the Pro Basketball Draft?: Caleb Holt11¢
IY 825%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
5 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 15 Jul 2026 15:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXNBADRAFTPICK →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →