SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

NBA Game Point Spread Markets — 45 contracts, SF signal on every row.

45 live Kalshi contracts (76 audited). Median implied probability sits at 16%. 9 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXNBASPREAD-26MAY25NYKCLE-NYK1 +41c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 14.2pp · cheapest KXNBASPREAD-26MAY25NYKCLE-CLE21 · richest KXNBASPREAD-26MAY25NYKCLE-NYK1.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXNBASPREAD.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXNBASPREAD
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXNBASPREAD
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXNBASPREAD",
    "label": "NBA Game Point Spread Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 45,
    "volume24hSum": 128941.73,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.02155
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 24 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100+673.0
Vol Flow$128.9K+10%
min $8.8Kmax $904.3K
Breadth100%0.0pp
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 18:30 UTC
May 17past 7d · UTCMay 24 · 18:23

Live contracts

45

Median IY

16¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$128.9K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+41¢

KXNBASPREAD-26MAY25NYKCLE-NYK1

NBA Game Point Spread Markets — liquidity topography (top 44 of 45 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 2123.3 → 77418.4%

$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,0001d7d77418.439770.92123.3

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in NBA Game Point Spread Markets

Showing top 20 of 45

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

New York wins by over 2.5 points?: New York wins by over 2.5 points51¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$63.3K
New York wins by over 9.5 points?: New York wins by over 9.5 points28¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$11.9K
New York wins by over 10.5 points?: New York wins by over 10.5 points25¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$9.0K
New York wins by over 3.5 points?: New York wins by over 3.5 points46¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$7.8K
New York wins by over 5.5 points?: New York wins by over 5.5 points40¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$5.2K
New York wins by over 15.5 points?: New York wins by over 15.5 points14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$4.4K
New York wins by over 7.5 points?: New York wins by over 7.5 points34¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$4.1K
New York wins by over 6.5 points?: New York wins by over 6.5 points36¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.3K
New York wins by over 4.5 points?: New York wins by over 4.5 points43¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.0K
Cleveland wins by over 9.5 points?: Cleveland wins by over 9.5 points19¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.7K
Cleveland wins by over 10.5 points?: Cleveland wins by over 10.5 points16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.9K
New York wins by over 1.5 points?: New York wins by over 1.5 points53¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.8K
New York wins by over 23.5 points?: New York wins by over 23.5 points5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.4K
New York wins by over 13.5 points?: New York wins by over 13.5 points16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.1K
New York wins by over 18.5 points?: New York wins by over 18.5 points9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.1K
New York wins by over 22.5 points?: New York wins by over 22.5 points5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$754
New York wins by over 19.5 points?: New York wins by over 19.5 points8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$589
New York wins by over 14.5 points?: New York wins by over 14.5 points15¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$475
New York wins by over 16.5 points?: New York wins by over 16.5 points11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$448
Cleveland wins by over 21.5 points?: Cleveland wins by over 21.5 points3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$422
45 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in NBA Game Point Spread Markets

From market_changes
15h agoKalshi
New York wins by over 1.5 points?: New York wins by over 1.5 points
52¢11→52 (+41)
open →
15h agoKalshi
New York wins by over 2.5 points?: New York wins by over 2.5 points
48¢11→48 (+37)
open →
15h agoKalshi
New York wins by over 3.5 points?: New York wins by over 3.5 points
44¢11→44 (+33)
open →
15h agoKalshi
New York wins by over 4.5 points?: New York wins by over 4.5 points
40¢11→40 (+29)
open →
15h agoKalshi
New York wins by over 5.5 points?: New York wins by over 5.5 points
36¢12→36 (+24)
open →
15h agoKalshi
New York wins by over 6.5 points?: New York wins by over 6.5 points
33¢12→33 (+21)
open →
15h agoKalshi
New York wins by over 7.5 points?: New York wins by over 7.5 points
30¢12→30 (+18)
open →
15h agoKalshi
New York wins by over 22.5 points?: New York wins by over 22.5 points
3¢11→3 (-8)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 24 May 2026 18:08:24 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXNBASPREAD →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →