SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

PGA Championship Cut Made Markets — 153 contracts, SF signal on every row.

153 live Kalshi contracts (115 audited). Median implied probability sits at 53%. 127 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXPGAMAKECUT-PGC26-DBR +25c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXPGAMAKECUT.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXPGAMAKECUT
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXPGAMAKECUT
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXPGAMAKECUT",
    "label": "PGA Championship Cut Made Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 153,
    "volume24hSum": 95922.44,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 13 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$95.9K+427%
min $18.2Kmax $98.6K
Breadth-17%-65.8pp
min -17%max 49%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 08:15 UTC
May 12past 27h · UTCMay 13 · 07:58

Live contracts

153

Median IY

53¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$95.9K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+25¢

KXPGAMAKECUT-PGC26-DBR

PGA Championship Cut Made Markets — liquidity topography (top 112 of 153 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 113.4 → 66160.3%

$10$100$1,000$10,0001d7d30d66160.333136.8113.4

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in PGA Championship Cut Made Markets

Showing top 20 of 153

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

PGA Championship: Will Michael Block make the cut?: Michael Block6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$14.4K
PGA Championship: Will Alex Fitzpatrick make the cut?: Alex Fitzpatrick65¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$12.5K
PGA Championship: Will Jon Rahm make the cut?: Jon Rahm84¢
IY 218%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$6.7K
PGA Championship: Will Francisco Bide make the cut?: Francisco Bide4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$4.3K
PGA Championship: Will Harris English make the cut?: Harris English67¢
IY 565%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$4.0K
PGA Championship: Will Alex Smalley make the cut?: Alex Smalley62¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$3.4K
PGA Championship: Will Maverick McNealy make the cut?: Maverick McNealy66¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$3.2K
PGA Championship: Will Jesse Droemer make the cut?: Jesse Droemer4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$3.1K
PGA Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?: Scottie Scheffler91¢
IY 113%Cliff 10Edge —RVol 674%Resid —$3.0K
PGA Championship: Will Cameron Young make the cut?: Cameron Young82¢
IY 252%Cliff 5Edge —RVol 934%Resid —$2.9K
PGA Championship: Will Marco Penge make the cut?: Marco Penge51¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$2.2K
PGA Championship: Will Daniel Brown make the cut?: Daniel Brown38¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.5K
PGA Championship: Will Michael Kartrude make the cut?: Michael Kartrude5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.5K
PGA Championship: Will Thomas Detry make the cut?: Thomas Detry64¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.4K
PGA Championship: Will Ben Griffin make the cut?: Ben Griffin65¢
IY 617%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.4K
PGA Championship: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?: Rory McIlroy86¢
IY 187%Cliff 6Edge —RVol 756%Resid —$1.2K
PGA Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut?: Bryson DeChambeau75¢
IY 382%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.2K
PGA Championship: Will Stewart Cink make the cut?: Stewart Cink47¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.1K
PGA Championship: Will Austin Hurt make the cut?: Austin Hurt4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.0K
PGA Championship: Will Braden Shattuck make the cut?: Braden Shattuck8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$985
153 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in PGA Championship Cut Made Markets

From market_changes
12h agoKalshi
PGA Championship: Will Daniel Brown make the cut?: Daniel Brown
30¢5→30 (+25)
open →
13h agoKalshi
PGA Championship: Will Mikael Lundberg make the cut?: Mikael Lundberg
24¢1→24 (+23)
open →
16h agoKalshi
PGA Championship: Will Mikael Lundberg make the cut?: Mikael Lundberg
2¢24→2 (-22)
open →
11h agoKalshi
PGA Championship: Will Jake Knapp make the cut?: Jake Knapp
67¢47→67 (+20)
open →
12h agoKalshi
PGA Championship: Will Jake Knapp make the cut?: Jake Knapp
41¢60→41 (-19)
open →
11h agoKalshi
PGA Championship: Will Tom Hoge make the cut?: Tom Hoge
16¢33→16 (-17)
open →
11h agoKalshi
PGA Championship: Will Mikael Lundberg make the cut?: Mikael Lundberg
24¢40→24 (-16)
open →
11h agoKalshi
PGA Championship: Will Mikael Lundberg make the cut?: Mikael Lundberg
40¢24→40 (+16)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 13 May 2026 07:53:38 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXPGAMAKECUT →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →