SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

PGA Championship Cut Made Markets — 15 contracts, SF signal on every row.

15 live Kalshi contracts (115 audited). Median implied probability sits at 78%. 1 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-SGRE +17c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXPGAMAKECUT.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXPGAMAKECUT
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXPGAMAKECUT
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXPGAMAKECUT",
    "label": "PGA Championship Cut Made Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 15,
    "volume24hSum": 34.22,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": null
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 28 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 23:30 UTC
Vol Flow$34+439%
min $0max $408
Breadth100%+200.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 23:30 UTC
Jun 22past 7d · UTCJun 28 · 22:23

Live contracts

15

Median IY

78¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$34

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+17¢

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-SGRE

PGA Championship Cut Made Markets — liquidity topography (top 6 of 15 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 74.9 → 18173.5%

$101d7d30d18173.59124.274.9

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in PGA Championship Cut Made Markets

Showing top 15 of 15

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?: Scottie Scheffler61¢
IY 484%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$20
The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg make the cut?: Ludvig Aberg9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$11
The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut?: Bryson DeChambeau4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
The Open Championship: Will Gary Woodland make the cut?: Gary Woodland91¢
IY 75%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
The Open Championship: Will Justin Thomas make the cut?: Justin Thomas77¢
IY 226%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
The Open Championship: Will Aaron Rai make the cut?: Aaron Rai78¢
IY 214%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
The Open Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?: Matt Fitzpatrick84¢
IY 144%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
The Open Championship: Will Stuart Grehan make the cut?: Stuart Grehan18¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
The Open Championship: Will Tommy Fleetwood make the cut?: Tommy Fleetwood84¢
IY 144%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
The Open Championship: Will Si Woo Kim make the cut?: Si Woo Kim6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
The Open Championship: Will Bud Cauley make the cut?: Bud Cauley92¢
IY 66%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
The Open Championship: Will Ben Griffin make the cut?: Ben Griffin92¢
IY 66%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
The Open Championship: Will Jackson Koivun make the cut?: Jackson Koivun3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
The Open Championship: Will Kurt Kitayama make the cut?: Kurt Kitayama92¢
IY 66%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
The Open Championship: Will Kristoffer Reitan make the cut?: Kristoffer Reitan84¢
IY 144%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
15 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in PGA Championship Cut Made Markets

From market_changes
22h agoKalshi
The Open Championship: Will Stuart Grehan make the cut?: Stuart Grehan
18¢1→18 (+17)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 28 Jun 2026 23:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXPGAMAKECUT →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →