SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets — 28 contracts, SF signal on every row.

28 live Kalshi contracts (68 audited). Median implied probability sits at 5%. 25 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXPGAR3LEAD-TOC26-PCAN -42c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 8.0pp · cheapest KXPGAR1LEAD-TOC26-SBUR · richest KXPGAR3LEAD-TOC26-WKIM.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXPGAR.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXPGAR
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXPGAR
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXPGAR",
    "label": "PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 28,
    "volume24hSum": 358258.74,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00218
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 25 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$358.3K+131%
min $0max $3.7M
Breadth-20%+80.0pp
min -100%max 67%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 06:45 UTC
Aug 18past 7d · UTCAug 25 · 06:23

Live contracts

28

Median IY

5¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$358.3K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-42¢

KXPGAR3LEAD-TOC26-PCAN

PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets — liquidity topography (top 26 of 28 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 2692.1 → 63033.0%

$10$100$1,000$10,0001d7d63033.032862.62692.1

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets

Showing top 20 of 28

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Scottie Scheffler leads at the end of Round 1: Scottie Scheffler9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol 934%Resid —$44.5K
Patrick Cantlay leads at the end of Round 1: Patrick Cantlay3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$34.7K
Wyndham Clark leads at the end of Round 1: Wyndham Clark4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$33.1K
Cameron Young leads at the end of Round 1: Cameron Young4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$28.7K
Xander Schauffele leads at the end of Round 1: Xander Schauffele4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$28.1K
Rory McIlroy leads at the end of Round 1: Rory McIlroy5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$24.7K
Collin Morikawa leads at the end of Round 1: Collin Morikawa4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$23.9K
Russell Henley leads at the end of Round 1: Russell Henley3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$21.9K
Matt Fitzpatrick leads at the end of Round 1: Matt Fitzpatrick3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$19.5K
Tommy Fleetwood leads at the end of Round 1: Tommy Fleetwood3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$18.5K
Si Woo Kim leads at the end of Round 1: Si Woo Kim3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$17.5K
Hideki Matsuyama leads at the end of Round 1: Hideki Matsuyama3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$16.6K
Chris Gotterup leads at the end of Round 1: Chris Gotterup4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$15.4K
Sam Burns leads at the end of Round 1: Sam Burns3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$15.2K
Viktor Hovland leads at the end of Round 1: Viktor Hovland4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$15.1K
Xander Schauffele leads at the end of Round 2: Xander Schauffele5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$536
Justin Rose leads at the end of Round 2: Justin Rose4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$150
Patrick Cantlay leads at the end of Round 3: Patrick Cantlay9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$124
Viktor Hovland leads at the end of Round 2: Viktor Hovland5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$53
Si Woo Kim leads at the end of Round 2: Si Woo Kim7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$40
28 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets

From market_changes
5h agoKalshi
Collin Morikawa leads at the end of Round 3: Collin Morikawa
1¢43→1 (-42)
open →
5h agoKalshi
Collin Morikawa leads at the end of Round 3: Collin Morikawa
43¢1→43 (+42)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Patrick Cantlay leads at the end of Round 3: Patrick Cantlay
2¢44→2 (-42)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Si Woo Kim leads at the end of Round 3: Si Woo Kim
1¢42→1 (-41)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Si Woo Kim leads at the end of Round 3: Si Woo Kim
42¢2→42 (+40)
open →
4h agoKalshi
Ryan Gerard leads at the end of Round 3: Ryan Gerard
1¢40→1 (-39)
open →
10h agoKalshi
Ryan Gerard leads at the end of Round 3: Ryan Gerard
1¢40→1 (-39)
open →
2h agoKalshi
Ryan Gerard leads at the end of Round 3: Ryan Gerard
40¢1→40 (+39)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 25 Aug 2026 06:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXPGAR →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →