SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets — 59 contracts, SF signal on every row.

59 live Kalshi contracts (68 audited). Median implied probability sits at 5%. 84 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RHOJ -44c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 7.9pp · cheapest KXPGAR2TOP10-THOC26-MFIT · richest KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-RMCI.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXPGAR.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXPGAR
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXPGAR
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXPGAR",
    "label": "PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 59,
    "volume24hSum": 260808.19,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00329
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 11 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$260.8K-7%
min $3.3Kmax $2.5M
Breadth-11%-34.2pp
min -100%max 67%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 17:15 UTC
Jul 4past 7d · UTCJul 11 · 16:23

Live contracts

59

Median IY

5¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$260.8K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-44¢

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RHOJ

PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets — liquidity topography (top 25 of 59 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 808.5 → 82494.5%

$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,0001d7d30d82494.541651.5808.5

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets

Showing top 20 of 59

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?: Tom Kim12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$65.0K
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?: Rory McIlroy29¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$52.9K
Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?: Chris Gotterup5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$37.6K
Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?: Matt Fitzpatrick11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$36.8K
Will Min Woo Lee lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?: Min Woo Lee8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$24.0K
Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?: Robert MacIntyre3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$19.7K
Will Jordan L. Smith lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?: Jordan L. Smith10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$9.6K
Will Lucas Glover lead at the end of Round 3 in the ISCO Championship?: Lucas Glover39¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$6.0K
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?: Rory McIlroy3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$3.0K
Will Aaron Wise lead at the end of Round 3 in the ISCO Championship?: Aaron Wise6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.2K
Will Steven Fisk lead at the end of Round 3 in the ISCO Championship?: Steven Fisk10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.2K
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?: Scottie Scheffler3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.1K
Will Chan Kim lead at the end of Round 3 in the ISCO Championship?: Chan Kim18¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$896
Will Stephan Jaeger lead at the end of Round 3 in the ISCO Championship?: Stephan Jaeger4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$505
Will Jeong-Weon Ko lead at the end of Round 3 in the ISCO Championship?: Jeong-Weon Ko7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$220
Will Patrick Reed lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?: Patrick Reed3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$208
Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?: Tyrrell Hatton3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$161
Will William Mouw lead at the end of Round 3 in the ISCO Championship?: William Mouw8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$154
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?: Rory McIlroy41¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$132
Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?: Tom Kim8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$101
59 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets

From market_changes
20h agoKalshi
Will Rasmus Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?: Rasmus Hojgaard
1¢45→1 (-44)
open →
19h agoKalshi
Will Sahith Theegala lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?: Sahith Theegala
1¢44→1 (-43)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?: Rory McIlroy
1¢41→1 (-40)
open →
18h agoKalshi
Will Patrick Cantlay lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?: Patrick Cantlay
1¢41→1 (-40)
open →
17h agoKalshi
Will Lucas Glover lead at the end of Round 3 in the ISCO Championship?: Lucas Glover
44¢12→44 (+32)
open →
19h agoKalshi
The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5 in Round 1?: Rory McIlroy
30¢1→30 (+29)
open →
19h agoKalshi
The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5 in Round 1?: Rory McIlroy
1¢30→1 (-29)
open →
23h agoKalshi
The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5 in Round 1?: Rory McIlroy
1¢30→1 (-29)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 11 Jul 2026 16:38:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXPGAR →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →