SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets — 18 contracts, SF signal on every row.

18 live Kalshi contracts (68 audited). Median implied probability sits at 6%. 35 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXPGAR1TOP5-CHSC26-LAG +95c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 35.1pp · cheapest KXPGAR1LEAD-USO26-RMCI · richest KXPGAR1TOP10-USO26-AHID.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXPGAR.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXPGAR
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXPGAR
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXPGAR",
    "label": "PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 18,
    "volume24hSum": 171995.23,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.03107
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 28 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100-3701.0
Vol Flow$172.0K-95%
min $33max $3.2M
Breadth-100%-107.7pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 09:15 UTC
May 22past 6d · UTCMay 28 · 08:23

Live contracts

18

Median IY

6¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$172.0K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+95¢

KXPGAR1TOP5-CHSC26-LAG

PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets — liquidity topography (top 11 of 18 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 15125.1 → 70923.5%

$10$100$1,000$10,000$100,0001d7d30d70923.543024.315125.1

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets

Showing top 18 of 18

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Justin Thomas lead at the end of Round 1 in the Charles Schwab Challenge?: Justin Thomas3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$94.3K
Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the Charles Schwab Challenge?: Ludvig Aberg3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$76.8K
Will Brian Harman lead at the end of Round 2 in the Charles Schwab Challenge?: Brian Harman6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$391
Will Russell Henley lead at the end of Round 2 in the Charles Schwab Challenge?: Russell Henley6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$391
Will Hideki Matsuyama lead at the end of Round 3 in the Charles Schwab Challenge?: Hideki Matsuyama10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$47
Charles Schwab Challenge: Will Rickie Fowler finish top 10 in Round 3?: Rickie Fowler3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$42
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the U.S. Open?: Scottie Scheffler5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$16
Charles Schwab Challenge: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10 in Round 2?: J.J. Spaun6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$15
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the U.S. Open?: Rory McIlroy3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$11
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 3 in the U.S. Open?: Scottie Scheffler6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$10
Will Max Homa lead at the end of Round 3 in the Charles Schwab Challenge?: Max Homa8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$5
Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 3 in the Charles Schwab Challenge?: Ludvig Aberg17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
U.S. Open: Will Adam Scott finish top 10 in Round 1?: Adam Scott80¢
IY 176%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
U.S. Open: Will Aaron Rai finish top 10 in Round 1?: Aaron Rai80¢
IY 176%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
U.S. Open: Will Angel Hidalgo finish top 10 in Round 1?: Angel Hidalgo80¢
IY 241%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
U.S. Open: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10 in Round 1?: Scottie Scheffler80¢
IY 176%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Kristoffer Reitan lead at the end of Round 1 in the U.S. Open?: Kristoffer Reitan6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Dustin Johnson lead at the end of Round 1 in the U.S. Open?: Dustin Johnson5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
18 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in PGA Championship Round-Leader Markets

From market_changes
21h agoKalshi
Charles Schwab Challenge: Will Lanto Griffin finish top 5 in Round 1?: Lanto Griffin
1¢96→1 (-95)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Charles Schwab Challenge: Will Lanto Griffin finish top 5 in Round 1?: Lanto Griffin
96¢1→96 (+95)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Charles Schwab Challenge: Will Lanto Griffin finish top 5 in Round 1?: Lanto Griffin
1¢96→1 (-95)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Charles Schwab Challenge: Will Lanto Griffin finish top 5 in Round 1?: Lanto Griffin
96¢1→96 (+95)
open →
22h agoKalshi
Charles Schwab Challenge: Will Lanto Griffin finish top 5 in Round 1?: Lanto Griffin
96¢1→96 (+95)
open →
1d agoKalshi
Charles Schwab Challenge: Will Lanto Griffin finish top 5 in Round 1?: Lanto Griffin
1¢96→1 (-95)
open →
16h agoKalshi
Charles Schwab Challenge: Will Lanto Griffin finish top 5 in Round 1?: Lanto Griffin
96¢1→96 (+95)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Charles Schwab Challenge: Will Lanto Griffin finish top 5 in Round 1?: Lanto Griffin
1¢96→1 (-95)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 28 May 2026 08:38:23 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXPGAR →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →