Markets · Series
2026 FIFA World Cup Elimination Stage Markets — 29 contracts, SF signal on every row.
29 live Kalshi contracts (153 audited). Median implied probability sits at 20%. 21 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26FRA-QF -14c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.
Fit: mean deviation 13.7pp · cheapest KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26BEL-FL · richest KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26BEL-QF.
Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXWCSTAGEOFELIM.
/api/public/markets/series/KXWCSTAGEOFELIM/api/public/yield-curves/KXWCSTAGEOFELIM›example response
{
"scope": {
"type": "series",
"slug": "KXWCSTAGEOFELIM",
"label": "2026 FIFA World Cup Elimination Stage Markets"
},
"live": {
"contractCount": 29,
"volume24hSum": 264148.89,
"hasThesisCount": 0
},
"termFit": {
"seriesType": "unknown",
"hazardRate": 0.01156
}
}Live contracts
29
Median IY
20¢
implied prob (YES)
24h volume
$264.1K
Days to catalyst
none
no scheduled catalyst
SF thesis coverage
0
Top mover
-14¢
KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26FRA-QF
2026 FIFA World Cup Elimination Stage Markets — liquidity topography (29 markets)
X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 236.0 → 68770.3%
Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →
Top markets in 2026 FIFA World Cup Elimination Stage Markets
Showing top 20 of 29Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.
Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 FIFA World Cup Elimination Stage Markets
Frommarket_changesHow we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 09 Jul 2026 22:08:42 GMT.
Term-structure analytics
Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXWCSTAGEOFELIM →
Category view
All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →
Venue view
Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →
JSON API
Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →