SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

2026 FIFA World Cup Elimination Stage Markets — 193 contracts, SF signal on every row.

193 live Kalshi contracts (153 audited). Median implied probability sits at 15%. 7 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26COD-GS +46c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 14.1pp · cheapest KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26ARG-GS · richest KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26HTI-GS.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXWCSTAGEOFELIM.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXWCSTAGEOFELIM
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXWCSTAGEOFELIM
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXWCSTAGEOFELIM",
    "label": "2026 FIFA World Cup Elimination Stage Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 193,
    "volume24hSum": 3386.76,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00413
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 24 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100-3548.0
Vol Flow$3.4K-9%
min $1.1Kmax $4.9K
Breadth100%+167.6pp
min -68%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 18:00 UTC
May 17past 7d · UTCMay 24 · 16:23

Live contracts

193

Median IY

15¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$3.4K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+46¢

KXWCSTAGEOFELIM-26COD-GS

2026 FIFA World Cup Elimination Stage Markets — liquidity topography (top 24 of 193 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 192.1 → 10947.5%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d10947.55569.8192.1

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in 2026 FIFA World Cup Elimination Stage Markets

Showing top 20 of 193

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Jordan get eliminated in the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 3218¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$776
Will Portugal get eliminated in the Final of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Runner-Up6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$678
Will Spain win the Final of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Outright Winner15¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$500
Will Brazil get eliminated in the Round of 32 of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 3218¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$292
Will Argentina win the Final of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Outright Winner5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$241
Will Australia get eliminated in the Group Stage in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group Stage49¢
IY 600%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$200
Will Brazil get eliminated in the Round of 16 of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 1621¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$198
Will Congo DR get eliminated in the Round of 16 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 165¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$73
Will Morocco get eliminated in the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 3242¢
IY 796%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$55
Will Norway get eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Quarterfinals13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$53
Will Portugal get eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Quarterfinals16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$50
Will USA get eliminated in the Round of 32 of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 3235¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$34
Will Germany get eliminated in the Round of 16 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 1627¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$34
Will Saudi Arabia get eliminated in the Round of 16 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 165¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$32
Will USA get eliminated in the Group Stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group Stage13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$30
Will Paraguay get eliminated in the Group Stage in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group Stage33¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$28
Will Netherlands get eliminated in the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 3227¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$27
Will Croatia get eliminated in the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 3242¢
IY 796%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$22
Will Brazil get eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Quarterfinals22¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$21
Will USA get eliminated in the Round of 16 of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 1623¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$17
193 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in 2026 FIFA World Cup Elimination Stage Markets

From market_changes
19h agoKalshi
Will Congo DR get eliminated in the Group Stage in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group Stage
47¢1→47 (+46)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will Croatia get eliminated in the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 32
41¢1→41 (+40)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Will Paraguay get eliminated in the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 32
37¢1→37 (+36)
open →
19h agoKalshi
Will Congo DR get eliminated in the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 32
34¢1→34 (+33)
open →
18h agoKalshi
Will Saudi Arabia get eliminated in the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 32
33¢1→33 (+32)
open →
5h agoKalshi
Will Australia get eliminated in the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 32
32¢2→32 (+30)
open →
1h agoKalshi
Will Jordan get eliminated in the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Round of 32
18¢13→18 (+5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 24 May 2026 17:38:24 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXWCSTAGEOFELIM →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →