Toronto to win Toronto vs New England
Toronto is priced at 42¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 39¢ bid, 43¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Toronto vs New England Winner.
Price history
42¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
If Toronto wins the Toronto vs New England professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Toronto
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Toronto 37¢
Range
25¢-37¢
Family volume
$178
Identifier
KXMLSGAME-26AUG15TORNE-TOR
Aug 4, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
39¢
Ask
43¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$60
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Toronto vs New England Winner
Closes
Aug 18, 2026
Family volume
$178
Orderbook snapshot
39 / 43¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Toronto wins the Toronto vs New England professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 18, 2026
Identifier
KXMLSGAME-26AUG15TORNE-TOR
Event family
Toronto vs New England Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$178
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Toronto 37¢
Current share
34%
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.