What will Donald Trump say during next White House livestream
Ceasefire is priced at 55¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 47¢ bid, 55¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside What will Donald Trump say during next White House livestream.
Price history
55¢ current
Contract brief
If Donald Trump says Ceasefire as part of next White House livestream , then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ceasefire
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
Democrat 61¢
Range
5¢-61¢
Family volume
$15K
Identifier
KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-CEAS
Jul 12, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 7h ago
Implied probability
Bid
47¢
Ask
55¢
Spread
8¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · What will Donald Trump say during next White House livestream
Closes
Jul 23, 2026
Family volume
$15K
Orderbook snapshot
47 / 55¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump says Ceasefire as part of next White House livestream , then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 23, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-CEAS
Event family
What will Donald Trump say during next White House livestream.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$15K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Democrat 61¢
Current share
9%
Democrat
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-DEMO
Gas / Gasoline
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-GAS
Nuclear
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-NUCL
Oil
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-OIL
Biden
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-BIDE
Iran (5+ times)
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-IRAN
Ceasefire
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-CEAS
Hormuz
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-HORM
Stock Market
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-STOC
Communist / Communism
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-COMM
Dumbocrat / Dumacrat
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-DUMB
World Cup
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-WORL
Barack Hussein Obama
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-BARA
Venezuela
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-VENE
250
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-250
Crypto / Bitcoin
kalshi · KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26JUL09-CRYP
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.