Another pandemic before GTA VI
Another pandemic before GTA VI is priced at 51¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 50¢ bid, 51¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
51¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and Grand Theft Auto VI's officially release in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. The resolution source for another pandemic's occurrence will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Outcome
Another pandemic before GTA VI
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$23K
Identifier
0x71b1cc47...b59e
Jul 17, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
50¢
Ask
51¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$7
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Family volume
$23K
Orderbook snapshot
50 / 51¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and Grand Theft Auto VI's officially release in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. The resolution source for another pandemic's occurrence will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
0x71b1cc47…b59e
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$23K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Another pandemic before GTA VI 51¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
unknown
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
Read 51% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.