New Rihanna Album before GTA VI
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI is priced at 51¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 50¢ bid, 51¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
51¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Outcome
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$856K
Identifier
0x1fad72fa...72be
Jul 14, 2026, 9:09 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
50¢
Ask
51¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Family volume
$856K
Orderbook snapshot
50 / 51¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
Identifier
0x1fad72fa…72be
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$856K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI 51¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
cultural
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.