Will Tesla say "Roadster" 5+ times during earnings call
Will Tesla say "Roadster" 5+ times during earnings call is priced at 50¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 96¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
50¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Tesla currently scheduled to take place on October 21, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Outcome
Will Tesla say "Roadster" 5+ times during earnings call
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
0xf5251a5f...ff2f
Oct 17, 2026, 9:26 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
96¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Tesla currently scheduled to take place on October 21, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
Identifier
0xf5251a5f…ff2f
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Tesla say "Roadster" 5+ times during earnings call 50¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 50% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.