When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that When will nuclear fusion be achieved?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2040. The market prices a 57% probability of fusion by 2040 with a modest 6.5% annualized yield for Yes holders, but the extremely high realized volatility of 248% and vol ratio of 9.58 suggest significant pricing uncertainty despite the long 5,007-day runway.
Analysis
The market prices a 57% probability of fusion by 2040 with a modest 6.5% annualized yield for Yes holders, but the extremely high realized volatility of 248% and vol ratio of 9.58 suggest significant pricing uncertainty despite the long 5,007-day runway. Zero 24-hour volume combined with $3,789.81 open interest indicates severe illiquidity, making the 4¢ spread potentially misleading as a true execution cost. The recent 4¢ price rise over seven days (49¢ to 53¢) represents an 8% move that warrants scrutiny given the low information arrival rate of 0.5/hour, possibly reflecting thin-market noise rather than fundamental repricing.
Resolution rules
If nuclear fusion is achieved before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFUSION-40-JAN01 yes 100