Before 2027 · KXTESLACAR-27
Before 2027 is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
4¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If Tesla releases a two door Model Y to the public before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXTESLACAR-27-TES
Jun 27, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$24K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Tesla releases a two door Model Y to the public before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTESLACAR-27-TES
Event family
KXTESLACAR-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Before 2027 4¢
Current share
—
Before 2027
kalshi · KXTESLACAR-27-TES
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 4% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.