Where will Rafael Leao go next
Bayern Munich is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 97¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 10 inside Where will Rafael Leao go next.
Price history
17¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If Rafael Leao's next club is Bayern Munich before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Bayern Munich
Rank
#1 of 10
Leader
Bayern Munich 17¢
Range
4¢-17¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-BMU
Jun 25, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
97¢
Reported volume
$6
Family rank
#1 of 10
10 outcomes · Where will Rafael Leao go next
Closes
Oct 9, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Rafael Leao's next club is Bayern Munich before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 9, 2026
Identifier
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-BMU
Event family
Where will Rafael Leao go next.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Bayern Munich 17¢
Current share
—
Bayern Munich
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-BMU
Arsenal
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-ARS
Barcelona
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-BAR
Chelsea
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-CFC
AC Milan
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-ACM
Real Madrid
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-RMA
Atletico
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-ATM
Newcastle
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-NEW
Tottenham
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-TOT
Manchester United
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02RLEAO-MUN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 17% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.