Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026
Radiant Industries is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 8 inside Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026.
Price history
12¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If Radiant Industries achieves criticality before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Radiant Industries
Rank
#4 of 8
Leader
Aalo Atomics 95¢
Range
3¢-95¢
Family volume
$945
Identifier
KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-RADIANT
Jun 27, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$17K
Family rank
#4 of 8
8 outcomes · Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$945
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Radiant Industries achieves criticality before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-RADIANT
Event family
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$945
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Aalo Atomics 95¢
Current share
0%
Aalo Atomics
kalshi · KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-AALO
Atomic Alchemy
kalshi · KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-ATOMIC
Oklo
kalshi · KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-OKLO
Radiant Industries
kalshi · KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-RADIANT
Terrestrial Energy
kalshi · KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-TERRESTRIAL
Last Energy
kalshi · KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-LAST
Deep Fission
kalshi · KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-DEEP
Natura Resources
kalshi · KXCRITICALITY-26AUG-NATURA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.