Who will be the Featherweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?

15¢

Bid/Ask 15/49¢·Spread 34¢·Vol $0·OI $4,123·Closes Dec 31, 2026·256d remaining

KXUFCFEATHERWEIGHTTITLE-26-JSIL

7-day price52 snapshots · 2 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This Jean Silva featherweight title market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 35¢ spread, while the 807% implied yield on the Yes side signals either mispricing or very low confidence in Silva's title prospects. The 8¢ cross-venue gap (15¢ on Kalshi versus 23¢ on Polymarket) suggests arbitrage opportunity, though the thin $4,123 open interest makes execution risky. With 256 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market appears underpriced relative to Polymarket, but the extreme yield and cliff risk index of 6 warrant caution before taking a position.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 23¢(Δ -8¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.95IY 478.2%Close-time delta 17h

Resolution rules

If Jean Silva is the UFC Featherweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 807.1%

IY (No) 25.1%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 6

Overround -0.2%

LAS 2.33

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	807.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	25.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	2.33	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

34¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 11:13:49 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/19/2026, 10:53:34 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUFCFEATHERWEIGHTTITLE-26-JSIL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →